本期覆盖 2026-07-03 至 2026-07-10，共收录高置信度文章 19 篇，边缘相关 0 篇，待人工核实 1 篇。

本周亮点

亮点 1：The Observed Circumpolar Decline of Antarctic Bottom Water Volume

期刊：GRL ｜ DOI：https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl121359

English summary

This study presents the first continuous circumpolar record of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) volume variability from 2002 to 2023, using a new reconstruction from the SatGEM-2 climatology. The results show a significant decline in AABW volume, which has critical implications for the global overturning circulation and climate. The findings are validated against independent Deep Argo profiles and repeat hydrographic transects, confirming the robustness of the observed trend.

中文解读

本研究利用SatGEM-2气候态重建首次提供了2002-2023年南极底层水（AABW）体积变化的连续环极记录。结果显示AABW体积显著下降，这对全球翻转环流和气候具有关键影响。研究结果通过独立Deep Argo剖面和重复水文断面验证，确认了观测趋势的可靠性。

亮点 2：Reduced Wind Power on Oceanic Near‐Inertial Internal Waves in a Warming Climate

期刊：GRL ｜ DOI：https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl121340

English summary

Using a high-resolution climate simulation, this study reveals that under a high-emission scenario, the quasi-global wind power on near-inertial internal waves declines by about 13% by the end of the 21st century. This reduction is driven by decreased near-inertial wind stress variability, which has significant implications for ocean mixing and the global climate system. The findings highlight a previously underappreciated impact of climate change on ocean dynamics.

中文解读

利用高分辨率气候模拟，本研究发现在高排放情景下，近惯性内波的风能输入在21世纪末减少了约13%。这一下降由近惯性风应力变率减小驱动，对海洋混合和全球气候系统有重要影响。该发现揭示了气候变化对海洋动力学的一个此前未被充分认识的影响。

文章详览

1. JPO — Impact of the radial wind convergence of tropical cyclones on surface wave characteristics

Abstract

Abstract Low-level radial convergent wind is an important component of tropical cyclone (TC) wind fields, typically accounting for 10%-30% of the total wind speed. However, its impact on wave characteristics remains unclear. This study investigates the influence of radial wind on TC wave fields using idealized numerical wave simulations. Results show that inclusion of radial wind significantly enhances significant wave height (SWH) near and behind the TC center. Sensitivity analyses indicate that this enhancement is primarily modulated by TC translation speed, radius of maximum wind (RMW), and intensity. As translation speed increases, the maximum relative SWH enhancement near the center shifts rearward, decreasing from 52% to 19%. As the RMW increases, this enhancement rises from 18% to 47%. Variations in radial wind fraction mostly exert a greater influence on maximum relative SWH increase (16%-36%) than those in maximum wind speed (22%-29%). Additionally, radial wind reduces azimuthal asymmetry in the wave field, particularly at higher translation speeds. Mechanism analysis reveals that radial wind alters the angle between local wind direction and spectral peak wave direction, reducing wind sea coverage within 3RMW from approximately 47% to 40.4%. Radial wind enhances local wind energy input and whitecapping dissipation behind the TC center, suppresses net outward wave energy flux near the center, and promotes inward convergence of external swell energy, collectively leading to wave energy accumulation near and behind the TC center. These findings highlight the necessity of incorporating radial wind component in TC wave modeling and parametric wind field construction.

中文摘要

摘要 低层径向辐合风是热带气旋风场的重要组成部分，通常占总风速的10%-30%。然而，其对波浪特征的影响尚不明确。本研究利用理想化数值波浪模拟，探讨了径向风对热带气旋波浪场的影响。结果表明，纳入径向风显著增强了热带气旋中心附近及后方的有效波高。敏感性分析显示，这种增强主要受热带气旋移动速度、最大风速半径和强度调控。随着移动速度增加，中心附近的最大相对有效波高增强位置向后移动，增强幅度从52%降至19%。随着最大风速半径增大，增强幅度从18%升至47%。径向风比例变化对最大相对有效波高增强的影响（16%-36%）普遍大于最大风速变化的影响（22%-29%）。此外，径向风降低了波浪场的方位不对称性，尤其在较高移动速度下更为显著。机制分析表明，径向风改变了局地风向与谱峰波向之间的夹角，使3倍最大风速半径范围内的风浪覆盖率从约47%降至40.4%。径向风增强了热带气旋中心后方的局地风能输入和波浪破碎耗散，抑制了中心附近的净向外波能通量，并促进了外部涌浪能量的向内汇聚，共同导致热带气旋中心附近及后方的波能累积。这些发现凸显了在热带气旋波浪模拟和参数化风场构建中纳入径向风分量的必要性。

2. JPO — Mechanisms of Tropical Cyclone Modulation of Meridional Heat Transport in the North Pacific

Abstract

Abstract The cumulative effects of tropical cyclones (TCs) have a long-lasting impact on the meridional ocean heat transport (MHT), yet the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. Using high-resolution numerical simulations, this study investigates how TCs modulate MHT in the North Pacific through two experiments: one with TC wind forcing removed and the other with TC wind forcing reconstructed from observations. Results show that TCs weaken poleward MHT by 1.6±1.2% between 0°-16°N but strengthen it by 2.2±1.6% between 16°-30°N. By decomposing the MHT anomalies into an overturning component and a gyre component, we separately examine the dynamic and thermodynamic processes at play. The response is found to be dominated by changes in the overturning component through changes in the strength of the subtropical overturning cell. This cell is weakened between 0°-15°N due to reduced Ekman transport and interior geostrophic return flow, but strengthened between 15°-30°N due to intensified Ekman transport and weakened western boundary transport. In contrast, the gyre component, controlled by both dynamic and thermodynamic processes, offsets nearly half of the overturning-induced changes. TCs also amplify the seasonal amplitude of North Pacific MHT by up to 9.5±1.5%, primarily through seasonal modulation of the overturning cell strength. These results demonstrate that TCs modulate both the mean state and seasonal variability of the North Pacific MHT, highlighting the dominant role of the overturning cell strength and the compensating effects of the gyre component, which is often overlooked by previous research.

中文摘要

摘要 热带气旋的累积效应对经向海洋热输送具有长期影响，但其潜在机制仍知之甚少。本研究利用高分辨率数值模拟，通过两组实验探究热带气旋如何调控北太平洋的经向热输送：一组移除热带气旋风强迫，另一组基于观测重建热带气旋风强迫。结果表明，热带气旋在0°-16°N之间使向极热输送减弱1.6±1.2%，但在16°-30°N之间使其增强2.2±1.6%。通过将经向热输送异常分解为翻转分量和涡旋分量，我们分别考察了其中的动力学和热力学过程。研究发现，响应主要由翻转分量通过副热带翻转环流强度的变化主导。该环流在0°-15°N之间因埃克曼输送和内部地转回流减弱而减弱，但在15°-30°N之间因埃克曼输送增强和西边界输送减弱而增强。相比之下，受动力学和热力学过程共同控制的涡旋分量抵消了近一半由翻转分量引起的变化。热带气旋还使北太平洋经向热输送的季节振幅增大至多9.5±1.5%，这主要通过翻转环流强度的季节调制实现。这些结果表明，热带气旋同时调控北太平洋经向热输送的平均态和季节变率，凸显了翻转环流强度的主导作用以及涡旋分量的补偿效应，而后者常被以往研究忽视。

3. JC — Long-term extension projection of global land monsoon precipitation beyond 2100 under a low-emission scenario

Abstract

Abstract Global land monsoon precipitation (GLMP) profoundly impacts the water resources and societal development of two-thirds of the world population. While the future change of GLMP by 2100 has been assessed, it remains unclear how it will change beyond the twenty-first century. Here, using long-term extension model simulations from CMIP5/6 under the low-emission scenario RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6 pathway, we analyze the GLMP changes from 2100 up to 2300. The results show that under the extended RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6 scenario, South Asia and North America both partly reverse their pre-2100 responses by the late twenty-third century. Over South Asia, the post-2100 decline offsets about 28.51% of the wetting projected for the late twenty-first century relative to the historical period. This decline is mainly driven by post-2100 cooling and the associated weakening of the thermodynamic contribution. Over North America, the post-2100 increase recovers about 39.26% of the drying projected for the late twenty-first century relative to the historical period. This increase is mainly driven by a strengthened dynamic contribution under declined anthropogenic forcing. The largest inter-model uncertainty is seen over Africa, where a north-south asymmetric precipitation dipole emerges as the leading mode of inter-model spread, explaining 56.28% of the total variance. This African-pattern sourced uncertainty is dynamically controlled and closely linked to shifts in the Atlantic-sector intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), which are modulated by the Atlantic meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. Our results highlight the regional monsoon difference in long-term extension projection and the important role of ocean response and its associated atmospheric circulation adjustment in shaping long-term GLMP projections beyond 2100.

中文摘要

摘要 全球陆地季风降水（GLMP）深刻影响着世界三分之二人口的水资源和社会发展。尽管已有研究评估了2100年前GLMP的未来变化，但其在21世纪之后的演变趋势仍不明确。本研究利用CMIP5/6在低排放情景RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6路径下的长期延伸模式模拟，分析了2100年至2300年GLMP的变化。结果表明，在延伸的RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6情景下，南亚和北美在23世纪末均部分逆转了其2100年前的响应。南亚地区2100年后的降水减少抵消了相对于历史时期21世纪末预估增湿效应的约28.51%，这一减少主要由2100年后的降温及其伴随的热力贡献减弱驱动。北美地区2100年后的降水增加恢复了相对于历史时期21世纪末预估变干效应的约39.26%，这一增加主要源于人为强迫减弱下动力贡献的增强。非洲地区呈现最大的模式间不确定性，南北不对称的降水偶极子作为模式间差异的主导模态，解释了总方差的56.28%。这种源自非洲的模态不确定性受动力过程控制，并与大西洋扇区热带辐合带（ITCZ）的移动密切相关，而ITCZ的移动又受大西洋经向海表温度（SST）梯度调制。本研究揭示了长期延伸预估中区域季风差异，以及海洋响应及其伴随的大气环流调整在塑造2100年后长期GLMP预估中的重要作用。

4. JC — Direct Radiative Impacts of Stratospheric Aerosols on the Tropical Troposphere: Clouds, Precipitation, and Circulation in Convection-Resolving and Global Simulations

Abstract

Abstract A concern for stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is that stratospheric aerosols could inadvertently alter rain and winds through mechanisms independent of the intended surface cooling. Here we investigate how the tropical troposphere responds to SAI in models of different complexity, including convection-resolving mock-Walker and small-domain simulations as well as a global climate model, with sea surface temperature held fixed. Across models, we trace the mechanisms driving tropospheric impacts and identify modeling limitations that hinder accurate risk evaluation. SAI enhances downward longwave radiation from the warmed, aerosol-rich stratosphere, generating upper-tropospheric radiative heating that reduces cloudiness and suppresses convection, reducing precipitation. While our best estimate is a ~2% tropical mean precipitation reduction under strong SAI at fixed sea surface temperature, this is counteracted by cloud radiative responses that hinder predictability. Further, sensitivity experiments suggest that the precipitation response may hinge on how SAI is enacted, with higher and smaller particles both tending to weaken the precipitation response, in partial agreement with prior findings. Our convection-resolving simulations do not show that surface-temperature-independent effects of stratospheric aerosols inherently weaken the tropical overturning circulation, as previously suggested. While regional precipitation responses within the tropics could be substantial, our simulations suggest potential for lower risks than analogous volcanic events by releasing aerosols gradually, thereby mitigating land-sea circulation responses. These results clarify the mechanisms governing SAI hydroclimate impacts, and reveal limitations affecting simulated outcomes from contemporary models. Consequently, near-term SAI deployment would carry the risk of being implemented without the ability to reliably predict its hydroclimate impacts.

中文摘要

摘要 平流层气溶胶注入（SAI）的一个担忧是，平流层气溶胶可能通过独立于预期地表冷却的机制，无意中改变降雨和风场。本文利用不同复杂度的模式（包括对流解析的模拟沃克环流和小区域模拟，以及一个全球气候模式），在海表温度固定的条件下，研究了热带对流层对SAI的响应。通过跨模式分析，我们追溯了驱动对流层影响的机制，并识别了阻碍准确风险评估的模式局限性。SAI增强了来自变暖且富含气溶胶的平流层的向下长波辐射，产生对流层上层辐射加热，从而减少云量、抑制对流，并降低降水。尽管我们的最佳估计是，在强SAI且海表温度固定的条件下，热带平均降水减少约2%，但这一效应被阻碍可预测性的云辐射响应所抵消。此外，敏感性实验表明，降水响应可能取决于SAI的实施方式：更高高度和更小粒径的气溶胶均倾向于减弱降水响应，这与先前部分研究结果一致。我们的对流解析模拟并未显示平流层气溶胶的独立于地表温度效应会如先前所提出的那样，内在削弱热带翻转环流。尽管热带区域降水响应可能显著，但我们的模拟表明，通过逐步释放气溶胶，可缓解海陆环流响应，从而降低与类似火山事件相比的风险。这些结果阐明了SAI水文气候影响的主导机制，并揭示了影响当代模式模拟结果的局限性。因此，近期部署SAI将面临在无法可靠预测其水文气候影响的情况下实施的风险。

5. JC — Divergent Pathways of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet in Influencing Heavy Rainfall Events during the Meiyu Period in Flood and Drought Years

Abstract

Abstract Heavy rainfall events (HREs) during the Meiyu season are a primary focus of disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on the observations and reanalysis data, the classification of flood and drought years was determined by cumulative Meiyu precipitation. Then the divergent pathways of the East-Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) impacting the HREs, along with the causes of the anomalous jet variations were analyzed. The flood-year HREs exhibit longer durations and higher frequency compared to drought-year events. The mid-high-latitude circulation exhibits a zonal pattern, characterized by by the EASWJ center being persistently positioned at 35–40°N, while precipitation locates northward. Jet intensity is enhanced and sustained by two factors: warm-region heating driven by low-latitude circulations and anomalous local Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux divergence. These processes provide essential dynamic conditions for HREs development and prolonged persistence. During the drought years, the mid-high-latitude circulation exhibits a meridional pattern, characterized by a southward shift of the jet and precipitation. The EASWJ migrates southward, accompany with the intrusion of cold air and intensifying the Meiyu front, thereby triggering HREs. Under the influence of cold air carried southward by mid-high-latitude vertical-meridional circulation and abnormal dispersion of disturbance energy, the jet strengthens. The southward migration of disturbance energy governs the shift of jet. However, the rapid southward advance of cold air reduces the temperature gradient across the jet’s northern and southern flanks. Concurrently, anomalous disturbance energy convergence weakens the EASWJ, leading to precipitation termination.

中文摘要

摘要 梅雨期强降水事件（HREs）是防灾减灾的重点关注对象。基于观测和再分析资料，通过累积梅雨降水量划分了洪涝年和干旱年，进而分析了东亚副热带西风急流（EASWJ）影响强降水事件的不同路径及其异常变化的成因。与干旱年相比，洪涝年强降水事件持续时间更长、发生频率更高。中高纬环流呈纬向型分布，EASWJ中心持续位于35–40°N，降水偏北。急流强度增强并维持受两个因素驱动：低纬环流引起的暖区加热和局地Eliassen-Palm（EP）通量异常辐散。这些过程为强降水事件的发展和持续提供了必要的动力条件。干旱年期间，中高纬环流呈经向型分布，急流和降水均南移。EASWJ南移伴随冷空气入侵，加强梅雨锋，从而触发强降水事件。在中高纬垂直经向环流携带的冷空气和扰动能量异常辐散的影响下，急流增强。扰动能量的南移主导了急流的位移。然而，冷空气的快速南侵减小了急流南北两侧的温度梯度。同时，异常扰动能量辐合削弱了EASWJ，导致降水终止。

6. GRL — The Observed Circumpolar Decline of Antarctic Bottom Water Volume

Abstract

Abstract Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation is a key component of the global overturning circulation, ventilating the abyssal ocean and sequestering heat and carbon. Using a new reconstruction from the SatGEM‐2 monthly‐varying gravest empirical mode climatology, a continuous, observation‐driven circumpolar record of AABW variability is presented between 2002 and 2023. Comparisons with independent Deep Argo profiles and repeat hydrographic transects confirm that SatGEM‐2 reproduces observed thermohaline structure to within ∼0.04°C and ∼0.003 g/kg. A decline in AABW volume of % relative to a 2002 baseline is observed, increasing fourfold after 2015 to % . By 2023, this corresponds to a cumulative reduction of % of the 2002 circumpolar volume. The recent increase in AABW loss coincides with a rapid decline in Antarctic sea ice since 2016, and AABW volume anomalies are strongly correlated with sea ice extent variability.

中文摘要

摘要 南极底层水（AABW）的形成是全球翻转环流的关键组成部分，负责为深海通风并封存热量与碳。利用基于SatGEM‐2月变重力经验模态气候态的新重建数据，本文呈现了2002年至2023年间连续、观测驱动的环南极AABW变化记录。与独立Deep Argo剖面及重复水文断面数据的对比证实，SatGEM‐2再现的温盐结构误差在约0.04°C和约0.003 g/kg以内。观测到AABW体积相对于2002年基线下降了%，且2015年后降幅增至四倍，达到%。截至2023年，这相当于2002年环南极体积累计减少了%。近期AABW损失的加剧与2016年以来南极海冰的快速消退同步发生，且AABW体积异常与海冰范围变化呈强相关。

7. GRL — Tidal Mixing on the Antarctic Continental Slope Enhances Ocean Heat Transport With Implications for Sea Ice

Abstract

Abstract Ocean microstructure measurements collected during three austral summers (2023–2025) along the Antarctic continental slope off Dronning Maud Land show enhanced subsurface mixing. Mean turbulent dissipation between 100 and 800 m depth is an order of magnitude higher than in the open ocean, with an extreme event reaching W at mid‐depth. Elevated dissipation coincides with peaks in vertical velocity shear during periods of strong tidal acceleration associated with spring‐tide flow reversals. Enhanced continental slope mixing drives a mean upward heat flux of 3 W into the base of cold surface waters, in agreement with independent estimates from an internal tide model. Combined with reanalysis data, the model suggests tidal mixing along the Antarctic continental slope could produce a circumpolar mean vertical heat flux of 9 W . This upward heat transport may warm the upper ocean and limit sea ice formation around Antarctica.

中文摘要

摘要：在南极德龙宁毛德地沿岸大陆坡的三个南半球夏季（2023–2025年）期间采集的海洋微结构观测数据显示，次表层混合显著增强。100至800米深度范围内的平均湍流耗散率比开阔大洋高出一个数量级，其中一次极端事件在中层深度达到W。增强的耗散与春季潮汐流反转期间强潮汐加速阶段的垂向流速剪切峰值相吻合。大陆坡混合增强驱动了平均3 W的向上热通量进入寒冷表层水底部，这与内潮模式独立估算的结果一致。结合再分析数据，该模式表明南极大陆坡沿线的潮汐混合可能产生9 W的绕极平均垂向热通量。这种向上的热量输送可能使上层海洋变暖，并限制南极周围海冰的形成。

8. GRL — Reduced Wind Power on Oceanic Near‐Inertial Internal Waves in a Warming Climate

Abstract

Abstract Wind power on oceanic near‐inertial internal waves () is one of the major energy sources to sustain ocean turbulent diapycnal mixing. However, its response to global warming remains poorly understood. Using a high‐resolution climate simulation that simulates reasonably well, we show that under a high‐emission scenario, the quasi‐globally (5°–60° latitudes) integrated exhibits a significant negative trend of per century during 2001–2100, decreasing by about 13% by the end of the 21st century compared to its present level. This decline is driven by reduced near‐inertial wind stress variance, primarily due to weakened mid‐latitude storm activities resulting from a poleward shift of storm tracks in both hemispheres and weakening of storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere. Our findings suggest that near‐inertial internal waves should likely weaken in a warming climate, with important implications for ocean turbulent diapycnal mixing.

中文摘要

摘要 海洋近惯性内波的风能输入是维持海洋湍流跨密度面混合的主要能量来源之一。然而，全球变暖对其影响尚不明确。通过使用能够合理模拟近惯性内波的高分辨率气候模拟，我们发现在高排放情景下，2001–2100年间准全球（5°–60°纬度）近惯性内波风能输入呈现每世纪约的显著负趋势，到21世纪末较当前水平下降约13%。这一下降源于近惯性风应力方差的减少，主要归因于中纬度风暴活动减弱——这由南北半球风暴路径向极地偏移以及北半球风暴路径强度减弱共同导致。我们的研究结果表明，在气候变暖背景下，近惯性内波可能趋于减弱，这对海洋湍流跨密度面混合具有重要影响。

9. GRL — Ground‐Truthed Fiber‐Optic Sensing Reveals Internal Tide Bores Over Madeira’s Steep Slope

  • 作者：Matthew H. Alford, Mohammad Belal, Alberto C. Naveira Garabato, Carl Spingys, Gunnar Voet, Oleg A. Godin, Ernst Uzhansky, Jennifer Ward Neale, Jesus Reis, Afonso Loureiro
  • 发表日期：2026-07-07
  • DOI：https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl124117

Abstract

Abstract We demonstrate the combined utility of distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) and repeat conductivity‐temperature‐depth (CTD) profiling for observing internal tide dynamics over a sloping seafloor. While DAS has been widely proposed as a method to infer ocean temperature variability from seafloor cables, quantitative in situ validation has been limited. Here we present the first published detailed comparison between DAS‐inferred bottom temperature fluctuations and near‐bottom temperature measured from high‐resolution yoyo‐CTD time series reaching 5 m above the seafloor, conducted over the EllaLink/GeoLab cable on the slope of Madeira. Linear regressions yield an empirical DAS temperature sensitivity of 21–37 µstrain , a factor 2.5–4 greater than commonly used theoretical estimates. The calibrated DAS record reveals semidiurnal internal tide bores propagating upslope to 1,300 m depth, where propagation halts and transitions to a complex interference pattern. These observations highlight the potential of combining seafloor fiber sensing with targeted in situ profiling to observe near‐bottom internal tide breaking processes.

中文摘要

摘要 我们展示了分布式声学传感（DAS）与重复温盐深（CTD）剖面观测相结合在倾斜海底内潮动力学研究中的综合效用。尽管DAS已被广泛提出作为通过海底电缆推断海洋温度变化的方法，但定量现场验证仍十分有限。本文首次发表了DAS推断的海底温度波动与高分辨率yoyo-CTD时间序列（距海底5米范围内）实测近底层温度之间的详细对比研究，该实验在马德拉岛斜坡上的EllaLink/GeoLab电缆上进行。线性回归得出DAS经验温度灵敏度为21–37微应变，比常用理论估算值大2.5–4倍。校准后的DAS记录揭示了半日内潮涌潮沿坡向上传播至1300米深度，在此处传播停止并转变为复杂干涉模式。这些观测结果凸显了将海底光纤传感与针对性现场剖面观测相结合以研究近底层内潮破碎过程的潜力。

10. GRL — Evaluation and Future Changes of Mesoscale Convective Systems Over the Conterminous United States in High‐Resolution Global and Regional Simulations

Abstract

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) play a central role in producing extreme precipitation over the conterminous United States (CONUS), yet their simulation and future evolution remain elusive. Here we present a comprehensive, observation‐constrained evaluation of MCSs during 2001–2020 using multisource satellite and in situ observations, ERA5 reanalysis, high‐resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM‐HR), and a 4‐km convection‐permitting regional simulation (CONUS404). CESM‐HR faithfully simulates cold‐season MCS climatology, structure, and precipitation characteristics, with heavy precipitation dominated by resolved‐scale modeling processes. CONUS404 better captures warm‐season MCS precipitation intensity but tends to produce more compact systems. Despite differences in historical performance, both CESM‐HR and CONUS404 project intensified MCS‐related extreme precipitation, expanded spatial extent, increased frequency by the mid–twenty‐first century, indicating a robust response to warming. In contrast, projected future changes in MCSs geographic distributions and lifetime duration remain model dependent, highlighting the continued challenges in constraining the dynamical aspects of MCS evolution.

中文摘要

摘要 中尺度对流系统（MCSs）在美国本土（CONUS）极端降水事件中扮演核心角色，但其模拟与未来演变仍难以捉摸。本研究利用多源卫星与实地观测数据、ERA5再分析资料、高分辨率社区地球系统模式（CESM-HR）以及4公里对流允许区域模拟（CONUS404），对2001–2020年期间MCSs进行了基于观测的综合评估。CESM-HR能够准确模拟冷季MCS的气候态特征、结构及降水特性，其中强降水主要由可分辨尺度模拟过程主导。CONUS404能更好捕捉暖季MCS降水强度，但倾向于生成更紧凑的系统。尽管历史模拟表现存在差异，CESM-HR与CONUS404均预测至21世纪中叶，MCS相关极端降水将增强、空间范围扩大、发生频率增加，表明其对增暖具有稳健响应。然而，未来MCS地理分布与生命周期的预估仍依赖模式选择，凸显了约束MCS演变动力学特征的持续挑战。

11. GRL — Quantification of Heat and Salt Budgets in the Western Ross Ice Shelf Cavity and Polynya System

Abstract

Abstract The Ross Ice Shelf Polynya (RISP) is one of the primary production sites of the High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW), the precursor of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) that drives the lower limb of global meridional overturning circulation. Utilizing a multi‐platform historical data set gathered over the western Ross Sea continental shelf, this study employs a box model to estimate heat and salt budgets in the western RISP and Ross Ice Shelf Cavity (RISC) system. Our analysis identifies three dominant controls on heat and salt budgets in the western RISC: cavity‐polynya exchange (EX), glacial basal melting (GM), and subglacial discharge (SD). The rate of SD is estimated at 87.0 Gt·yr −1 , higher compared with previous studies. This study highlights the role of subglacial discharge in modulating water mass evolution in Antarctic marginal seas, a component that requires incorporation in future climate models.

中文摘要

摘要 罗斯冰架冰间湖（RISP）是高盐陆架水（HSSW）的主要生成区域之一，而HSSW是驱动全球经向翻转环流下层的南极底层水（AABW）的前体。本研究利用在罗斯海西部陆架收集的多平台历史数据集，采用箱式模型估算西部RISP与罗斯冰架腔（RISC）系统的热量和盐度收支。分析揭示了控制西部RISC热量和盐度收支的三个主导因素：腔体-冰间湖交换（EX）、冰川基底融化（GM）和冰下排放（SD）。冰下排放速率估算为87.0 Gt·yr⁻¹，高于以往研究结果。本研究强调了冰下排放对南极边缘海水团演化的调节作用，这一过程需纳入未来气候模式中。

12. GRL — Non‐Uniform Reduction of the North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones in Response to the AMOC Weakening Under External Freshwater Forcing

Abstract

Abstract We investigate the North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclone (TC) response to a substantial weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under external freshwater forcing using a high‐resolution coupled model. With explicit TC trackings instead of indirect inferences from large‐scale environmental changes, we detect a non‐uniform AMOC‐linked NA TC reduction. The transient TC reduction is more rapid and pronounced over the eastern NA. After several decades, the TCs are almost absent over the eastern NA and the remaining substantially reduced TCs are mostly confined over the western subtropical NA. This non‐uniform TC reduction is related to the equatorward propagation of negative extratropical surface temperature and near‐surface humidity anomalies along a horseshoe pathway as the AMOC weakens. Concurrently, vertical wind shear strengthens over the tropical NA, reinforcing the TC suppression there. In contrast, the AMOC weakening induces TC‐favorable environmental changes (e.g., surface warming) and thus the emergence of TCs over the South Atlantic.

中文摘要

摘要 我们利用高分辨率耦合模式，研究了在外部淡水强迫下，北大西洋经向翻转流（AMOC）显著减弱时北大西洋热带气旋（TC）的响应。通过显式追踪热带气旋而非从大尺度环境变化间接推断，我们发现了与AMOC相关的非均匀北大西洋热带气旋减少。在北大西洋东部，热带气旋的瞬态减少更为迅速和显著。几十年后，北大西洋东部几乎不再出现热带气旋，而剩余显著减少的热带气旋主要局限于北大西洋西部副热带区域。这种非均匀的热带气旋减少与AMOC减弱时负的副热带外海表温度和近地表湿度异常沿马蹄形路径向赤道传播有关。同时，热带北大西洋的垂直风切变增强，进一步加剧了该区域热带气旋的抑制。相比之下，AMOC减弱引发了有利于热带气旋的环境变化（例如海表增暖），从而在南大西洋出现了热带气旋。

13. GRL — Spatial Heterogeneity of Atlantic Water Upward Heat Flux in the Eurasian Basin Revealed by MOSAiC

Abstract

Abstract Atlantic Water (AW) is the main oceanic heat source in the Arctic and a key driver of sea ice retreat. Based on Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate microstructure data from the Eurasian Basin, we examined the spatial heterogeneity of AW upward heat flux. We found that diffusive convection (∼76% occurrence; heat flux 2.14 W m −2 ) dominates upward heat transport in the AW interface layer (∼130–180 m) in the inner Eurasian Basin, whereas turbulent mixing (∼80% occurrence; heat flux 5.01 W m −2 ) prevails in the outer region. Intrusion‐induced negative temperature gradients (∼81% occurrence in the entire Eurasian Basin) trap heat below the AW interface layer (∼180–240 m), suppressing upward heat transfer. Our results indicate that AW upward heat release mainly originates from the interface layer in the Eurasian Basin, whereas most AW heat remains trapped beneath this layer and is largely isolated from upper‐ocean processes, thereby influencing Arctic sea ice variability.

中文摘要

摘要 大西洋水是北极地区主要的海洋热源，也是海冰消退的关键驱动因素。基于欧亚盆地北极气候研究多学科漂流观测站的微结构数据，我们研究了大西洋水向上热通量的空间异质性。研究发现，在欧亚盆地内部区域，扩散对流（发生率约76%；热通量2.14 W m⁻²）主导了大西洋水界面层（约130–180米）的向上热传输，而在外部区域，湍流混合（发生率约80%；热通量5.01 W m⁻²）则占主导地位。入侵引起的负温度梯度（在整个欧亚盆地发生率约81%）将热量困在大西洋水界面层以下（约180–240米），抑制了向上的热传递。我们的结果表明，欧亚盆地大西洋水的向上热释放主要源自界面层，而大部分大西洋水热量仍被困在该层之下，与上层海洋过程基本隔离，从而影响北极海冰的变化。

14. GRL — Landfall Reorganizes Eyewall Boundary Layer Transport and Scale Coupling in Typhoon Hato (2017)

Abstract

Abstract Landfall reorganizes the tropical cyclone eyewall boundary layer (BL) through elevated surface roughness and reduced enthalpy fluxes. Using a 100‐m resolution nested large‐eddy simulation of Typhoon Hato (2017), we compare eyewall BL structures before and during landfall. Kilometer‐scale rolls and streaks dominate variance and vertical fluxes in both stages, but become shallower and less vertically coherent during landfall, redistributing turbulent transport toward lower levels. Flux decomposition reveals that while tangential momentum flux weakens, low‐level radial momentum flux is enhanced by its large‐scale component. Simultaneously, increased stability near the mixed‐layer top strengthens coupling between vertical velocity and thermodynamic perturbations, indicating a wave‐like response superimposed on residual turbulence. Cross‐scale diagnostics show that the modulation of sub‐kilometer turbulence by kilometer‐scale coherent motions becomes vertically compressed and increasingly confined to the lower BL. These results highlight how landfall‐induced surface forcing modifies multi‐scale turbulent organization, enhancing our understanding of landfalling typhoon dynamics.

中文摘要

摘要 登陆过程通过增加地表粗糙度和减少焓通量，重新组织热带气旋眼墙边界层。利用对台风”天鸽”（2017）的100米分辨率嵌套大涡模拟，我们比较了登陆前后眼墙边界层的结构。千米尺度的滚轴和条带在两个阶段均主导方差和垂直通量，但在登陆期间变得更浅且垂直相干性减弱，将湍流输运重新分布至较低层次。通量分解表明，切向动量通量减弱的同时，低层径向动量通量因其大尺度分量而增强。同时，混合层顶部附近稳定性的增强加强了垂直速度与热力学扰动之间的耦合，表明叠加在残余湍流上的波状响应。跨尺度诊断显示，千米尺度相干运动对亚千米尺度湍流的调制在登陆期间变得垂直压缩，并日益局限于低层边界层。这些结果揭示了登陆诱发的地表强迫如何改变多尺度湍流组织，从而加深了我们对登陆台风动力学的理解。

15. GRL — Prospects of Constraining Internal Variability for Multi‐Annual to Multi‐Decadal Predictions in a Perfect‐Model Framework

  • 作者：Pep Cos, Leandro B. Díaz, Markus Donat, Raül Marcos‐Matamoros, Anna A. Sörensson, Francisco J. Doblas‐Reyes
  • 发表日期：2026-07-03
  • DOI：https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl119750

Abstract

Abstract Initialized climate prediction systems provide forecasts on seasonal‐to‐decadal timescales, but their computational cost has motivated the development of cheaper alternatives such as analog‐based approaches. Recent studies suggest that constraining large climate model ensembles using analogs of past sea surface temperature (SST) can yield skillful forecasts on multi‐annual to multi‐decadal timescales. Here, we adapt an analog‐based method to a perfect‐model framework, using large ensembles to assess maximum potential skill arising from internal variability. Results show that constraining internal variability produces skillful forecasts for global and regional SSTs up to 2–3 years, with declining predictability on longer timescales. Beyond 5 years, skill largely vanishes, indicating that multi‐decadal skill in previous studies might be driven by forced climate response rather than internal variability. These findings benchmark the limits of a collection of analog‐based prediction approaches, based on SST pattern correlations, and provide a framework for disentangling sources of skill in near‐term climate predictions.

中文摘要

初始化气候预测系统能够提供季节到年代际时间尺度的预报，但其计算成本促使人们开发更廉价的替代方案，例如基于相似的方法。近期研究表明，利用过去海表温度（SST）的相似场对大型气候模式集合进行约束，可以在多年度到多年代际时间尺度上获得有技巧的预报。本文将一种基于相似的方法应用于完美模式框架，利用大型集合评估由内部变率产生的最大潜在技巧。结果表明，约束内部变率可在全球和区域海表温度上产生长达2-3年的有技巧预报，而在更长时间尺度上可预测性下降。超过5年后，技巧基本消失，这表明先前研究中多年代际技巧可能由强迫气候响应驱动，而非内部变率。这些发现界定了基于海表温度空间相关性的相似预测方法集合的极限，并为厘清近气候预测中技巧来源提供了框架。

16. GRL — Tracing the Abyssal Water Pathways in the Indian Ocean

Abstract

Abstract Antarctic‐origin abyssal waters occupy a significant fraction of the global ocean volume and play a key role in deep circulation and ventilation, yet their volume is declining rapidly in a warming climate. Although the Indian Ocean (IO) contains a substantial fraction of these waters, abyssal pathways and upwelling in the basin remain poorly understood due to sparse observations. Here, we investigate abyssal transports using an eddy‐resolving regional ocean model. We find the abyssal waters flooding the IO along three distinct pathways with a net northward transport of ∼12.5 Sv across S, consistent with observational estimates. For the first‐time, we identify regional hot‐spots of large‐scale abyssal upwelling that occur along ridges and continental boundaries, transferring ∼10 Sv of abyssal waters upward, of which ∼8 Sv returns southward as deep waters. These results provide new constraints on the structure and closure of the lower limb of the IO overturning circulation.

中文摘要

摘要 南极起源的深海底层水占据全球海洋体积的显著比例，并在深层环流与通风过程中发挥关键作用，然而在气候变暖背景下其体积正在快速减少。尽管印度洋容纳了这些水体的相当比例，但由于观测资料匮乏，该海盆的深海底层水路径与上升流机制仍认知有限。本研究采用涡分辨率区域海洋模式探究深海底层水输运过程，发现这些水体沿三条不同路径涌入印度洋，在S断面产生约12.5 Sv的净向北输运量，与观测估算结果吻合。我们首次识别出沿洋脊和大陆边界分布的大尺度深海底层上升流热点区域，这些区域将约10 Sv的深海底层水向上输送，其中约8 Sv以深层水形式向南回流。这些结果为印度洋翻转环流下支结构及其闭合机制提供了新的约束条件。

17. Communications Earth & Environment — Marine heatwave impacts are seasonally amplified by ocean biogeochemical gradients

Abstract

Communications Earth & Environment, Published online: 09 July 2026; doi:10.1038/s43247-026-03792-6 The ecological impacts of marine heatwaves in the Southern Ocean are subject to a pronounced seasonal amplification which aligns with biogechemical ocean gradients, according to analysis of lidar data combined with model simulations

中文摘要

《通讯-地球与环境》，在线发表于2026年7月9日；doi:10.1038/s43247-026-03792-6。根据激光雷达数据与模式模拟相结合的分析，南大洋海洋热浪的生态影响受到显著的季节性放大，这种放大与海洋生物地球化学梯度相一致。

18. GRL — Sea Ice Latent Heat Becomes More Active in the Arctic Sea Ice Energy Budget

Abstract

Abstract Arctic sea ice has experienced rapid decrease in recent decades. The sea ice property changes have altered its thermodynamic processes, enhancing the heat exchange among atmosphere‐ocean‐ice surface. However, heat exchange associated with sea ice phase‐change process, which is defined as sea ice latent heat, have received relatively little attention. Results show that melt‐season sea ice latent heat absorption has intensified and reveal an opposing anomaly pattern spatial pattern between center and marginal ice regions. In the central Arctic, sea ice thinning enhances the increase of melt‐season sea ice latent heat, whereas in the marginal ice zone, reduced sea ice volume limits the enhancement. Meanwhile, the active sea ice melt season has expanded and shifted earlier, accompanied by more sea ice latent heat absorption from the late melt season toward the early melt season, suggesting that the sea ice latent heat has become increasingly active in the Arctic sea ice energy budget.

中文摘要

北极海冰在近几十年经历了快速减少。海冰属性的变化改变了其热力学过程，增强了大气-海洋-冰面之间的热交换。然而，与海冰相变过程相关的热交换（定义为海冰潜热）受到的关注相对较少。结果表明，融化季海冰潜热吸收增强，并揭示了中心冰区与边缘冰区之间相反的空间异常格局。在北极中心区域，海冰变薄加剧了融化季海冰潜热的增加，而在边缘冰区，海冰体积减少限制了这种增强。同时，活跃的海冰融化季已扩大并提前，伴随更多海冰潜热从融化季后期向融化季早期转移，表明海冰潜热在北极海冰能量收支中日益活跃。

19. Communications Earth & Environment — Increased heat transport of the Indonesian Throughflow linked to the spin-up of Southern-Hemisphere circulation gyres

Abstract

Communications Earth & Environment, Published online: 10 July 2026; doi:10.1038/s43247-026-03545-5 The Indonesian Throughflow’s heat transport into the Indian Ocean has increased as a result of shifting winds related to internal variability since 1998, revealed by observations and ocean model experiments.

中文摘要

《通讯-地球与环境》，在线发表：2026年7月10日；doi:10.1038/s43247-026-03545-5。观测与海洋模式实验揭示，自1998年以来，与内部变率相关的风场变化导致印度尼西亚贯穿流进入印度洋的热量输送增加。

待人工核实

元数据缺失（摘要 / DOI / 作者），需人工核查后再纳入。

  • Ocean Modelling — Editorial Board
    • 缺失项: 摘要缺失或过短; 作者列表缺失
    • 链接: https://doi.org/10.1016/s1463-5003(26)00118-6