本期覆盖 2026-07-17 至 2026-07-24，共收录高置信度文章 18 篇，边缘相关 3 篇，待人工核实 1 篇。

本周亮点

亮点 1：Enhanced Tidal Mixing Strengthened and Stabilized the AMOC During the Bølling–Allerød

期刊：GRL ｜ DOI：https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl122936

English summary

This study uses ocean circulation simulations to show that enhanced tidal mixing, sustained by lower sea levels during the Bølling–Allerød interstadial, significantly strengthened the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and increased its resilience to freshwater forcing. The findings identify tidal mixing as a key mechanism for maintaining a robust AMOC during past warm periods, challenging the conventional view that meltwater discharge alone would weaken it.

中文解读

本研究利用海洋环流模拟表明，在Bølling–Allerød间冰期，较低海平面维持的增强潮汐混合显著加强了大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC），并提高了其对淡水强迫的恢复力。该发现将潮汐混合确定为过去温暖时期维持强AMOC的关键机制，挑战了传统认为融水排放会削弱AMOC的观点。

亮点 2：Future Global Warming Constrained by Observed AMOC Strength

期刊：GRL ｜ DOI：https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl118802

English summary

This paper establishes a physical link between the climatological Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (cAMOC) and future global warming using an energy balance model. It shows that a stronger cAMOC, associated with weaker stratification, leads to stronger ocean heat uptake and thus larger global warming, providing a constraint on future warming projections based on observed AMOC strength.

中文解读

本文利用能量平衡模型建立了气候态大西洋经向翻转环流（cAMOC）与未来全球变暖之间的物理联系。研究表明，更强的cAMOC（与较弱层结相关）导致更强的海洋热吸收，从而加剧全球变暖，为基于观测的AMOC强度约束未来变暖预估提供了依据。

文章详览

1. JPO — Pycnostrophic coordinates: A framework for relating meridional overturning to ocean density structure

Abstract

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is sustained by changes in seawater density, but the link between those local density changes and the global-scale overturning circulation has not been fully resolved, in part due to ambiguity in the barotropic component of the flow. We define a new depth coordinate that compensates for the barotropic vortex stretching that balances planetary vorticity changes associated with meridional motion. In this framework, the divergence of barotropic flow is identically zero, and geostrophic divergence is determined solely by zonal density gradients. As a result, the geostrophic component of the Eulerian overturning circulation can be diagnosed directly from the density field without the need for a barotropic reference velocity or assumed level of no motion. We apply this framework to diagnose AMOC structure in a high-resolution numerical model. This application provides a direct link between density structure and overturning, clarifying how diapycnal processes at high latitudes influence Eulerian overturning at lower latitudes.

中文摘要

摘要 大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）由海水密度变化维持，但局地密度变化与全球尺度翻转环流之间的联系尚未完全明确，部分原因在于流动的正压分量存在模糊性。我们定义了一个新的深度坐标系，该坐标系补偿了与经向运动相关的行星涡度变化所平衡的正压涡旋拉伸。在此框架下，正压流的散度恒为零，而地转散度仅由纬向密度梯度决定。因此，欧拉翻转环流的地转分量可直接从密度场诊断得出，无需正压参考速度或假设无运动层。我们将该框架应用于高分辨率数值模型中AMOC结构的诊断。这一应用建立了密度结构与翻转环流之间的直接联系，阐明了高纬度跨密度面过程如何影响低纬度欧拉翻转环流。

2. JPO — Tidal rectification in a homogeneous coastal ocean

Abstract

Abstract Tidal rectification over sloping bathymetry is a key mechanism for generating along-shore currents in the coastal ocean, shaping heat, salt, and material exchanges across continental margins. Yet existing theoretical frameworks on tidal rectification often rely on a simplified continuity equation that neglects sea-surface height variations—an assumption appropriate for the deep ocean without lateral boundaries but not for shallower coastal environments. Here, we derive analytical expressions for the strength of tidally-rectified currents in a two-dimensional, homogeneous coastal ocean. Introducing an onshore closed boundary weakens the local cross-shore tidal current and, in turn, produces rectified currents that are substantially weaker than those predicted by previous open-ocean formulations. We validate our solutions using idealized numerical simulations and discuss the underlying physical processes and parameter dependencies governing tidal rectification in coastal settings.

中文摘要

摘要 倾斜海底地形上的潮汐整流是沿海海洋中产生沿岸流、塑造跨陆架热量、盐度和物质交换的关键机制。然而，现有潮汐整流理论框架通常依赖于忽略海面高度变化的简化连续性方程——这一假设适用于无侧向边界的深海，但不适用于较浅的沿海环境。本文在二维、均匀的沿海海洋中推导了潮汐整流流强度的解析表达式。引入向岸封闭边界会削弱局地跨岸潮汐流，进而产生比先前开阔大洋公式预测值显著更弱的整流流。我们通过理想化数值模拟验证了解析解，并讨论了控制沿海环境中潮汐整流的基本物理过程及参数依赖性。

3. JPO — The impact of intra-tidal wave asymmetry on nearshore sediment dynamic processes

Abstract

Abstract Wave propagation in coastal regions is strongly modulated by tidal forcing, producing systematic variations in wave characteristics across tidal phases (e.g., wave height, wave direction, and wave orbital velocity). We define these differences in wave characteristics induced by tides within a tidal cycle as the intra-tidal wave asymmetry (IWA). IWA can be pronounced under strong tides combined with extreme waves, yet its broader implications for coastal sedimentary processes have remained poorly understood. We address this issue by systematically analyzing the role of IWA in a channel-ridge system. The results show that IWA can modulate water levels and currents, and induce dramatic flood-ebb variation in suspended sediment concentration (SSC). These effects collectively enhance ebb-directed sediment transport, indicating that IWA exerts an important control on sediment flux. To clarify the underlying mechanisms, a dimensionless parameter ASF was adopted to integrate contributions associated with asymmetries in current velocity, current duration, SSC, and water depth. The analysis reveals a clear spring-neap variation in the dominant IWA-driven pathways. During spring tides, IWA enhances sediment transport primarily by modulating SSC asymmetry, whereas during neap tides mainly by modifying current velocity and duration. The response of sediment transport grows nonlinearly with IWA intensity. Overall, this study elucidates the mechanisms through which IWA regulates sediment transport and advances our understanding of wave-tide interactions in coastal environments.

中文摘要

摘要 近岸区域的波浪传播受到潮汐强迫的强烈调制，导致波浪特征（如波高、波向和波浪轨道速度）在潮汐相位间产生系统性变化。我们将一个潮汐周期内由潮汐引起的波浪特征差异定义为潮内波浪不对称性（IWA）。在强潮汐与极端波浪共同作用下，IWA可能十分显著，但其对近岸沉积过程的广泛影响至今尚不明确。本研究通过系统分析IWA在沟脊系统中的作用来探讨这一问题。结果表明，IWA能够调节水位和流场，并引起悬沙浓度（SSC）在涨落潮期间的剧烈变化。这些效应共同增强了向海方向的输沙，表明IWA对沉积物通量具有重要控制作用。为阐明其内在机制，我们采用无量纲参数ASF来整合与流速不对称性、潮汐历时不对称性、SSC不对称性及水深不对称性相关的贡献。分析揭示了IWA主导输沙路径的清晰大小潮变化：大潮期间，IWA主要通过调节SSC不对称性增强输沙；小潮期间，则主要通过改变流速和潮汐历时发挥作用。输沙响应随IWA强度呈非线性增长。总体而言，本研究阐明了IWA调控输沙的机制，深化了对近岸环境中波-潮相互作用的理解。

4. JPO — Energetics of frontogenesis in simple balanced models

Abstract

Abstract Submesoscale fronts have been proposed to act as conduits funneling kinetic energy from geostrophically constrained mesoscale eddies down to small scales, where the energy can be dissipated. Realistic primitive-equation simulations suggest that the downscale energy transfer at submesoscales is strongly concentrated in sharpening fronts, with convergence on the cyclonic side playing a dominant role. This study explores how much of this phenomenology can be captured by simple quasi-geostrophic (QG) and semi-geostrophic (SG) theories of frontogenesis. An analysis of the kinetic energy budget of classical strain-induced frontogenesis shows that there is downscale transfer in both QG and SG fronts. In QG frontogenesis, the narrowing jet along the sharpening front is powered by buoyancy production, but geostrophic downscale transfer due to the strain field plays an important role. In SG frontogenesis, where frontal sharpening is accelerated by the ageostrophic cross-frontal circulation, ageostrophic advection enhances this downscale transfer on the cyclonic side of the front, where the surface flow is convergent. On the anticyclonic side, where the ageostrophic circulation is divergent, the ageostrophic scale transfer of kinetic energy is upscale and partially offsets the geostrophic downscale transfer. While matching patterns in realistic primitive-equation simulations, the ageostrophic scale transfers remain important but not dominant in the adiabatic and frictionless theory considered here. This suggests that processes absent from these theories may play an important role. For example, mixed-layer turbulence may enhance the ageostrophic circulation and the associated dipole of scale transfers. The advection of ageostrophic momentum may also be important in some circumstances.

中文摘要

摘要 亚中尺度锋面被认为充当着将动能从受地转约束的中尺度涡旋向小尺度输送的通道，在此过程中能量得以耗散。真实原始方程模拟表明，亚中尺度上的降尺度能量传递强烈集中于锋面锐化过程，其中气旋侧的辐合起着主导作用。本研究探讨了这种现象在多大程度上能被简单的准地转（QG）和半地转（SG）锋生理论所捕捉。对经典应变驱动锋生过程的动能收支分析显示，在QG和SG锋面中均存在降尺度能量传递。在QG锋生过程中，沿锐化锋面收缩的急流由浮力产生驱动，但应变场所引起的地转降尺度传递也起着重要作用。在SG锋生过程中，锋面锐化因非地转跨锋环流而加速，非地转平流增强了锋面气旋侧（表面流辐合区）的降尺度传递。在反气旋侧（非地转环流辐散区），非地转尺度传递表现为升尺度，并部分抵消了地转降尺度传递。尽管与真实原始方程模拟的模态相匹配，但在本文考虑的绝热无摩擦理论中，非地转尺度传递虽仍重要但并非主导。这表明这些理论未包含的过程可能发挥重要作用。例如，混合层湍流可能增强非地转环流及其伴随的尺度传递偶极子。在某些情况下，非地转动量的平流也可能具有重要意义。

5. JC — Top-of-atmosphere radiation over the last millennium reconstructed from proxies

Abstract

Abstract Earth’s energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is a key climate system metric, but its natural variability is poorly constrained by the short observational record and large uncertainty in coupled climate models. While existing ocean heat content reconstructions offer a longer perspective, they cannot separate the contributions of shortwave and longwave radiation, obscuring the underlying processes. We extend the energy-budget record into the pre-industrial period by reconstructing the top-of-atmosphere radiation and related surface variables over the last millennium (850–2000 CE) using data assimilation, combining proxy data and dynamics from a coupled climate emulator. Validation reveals skill in the reconstructed radiation fields, especially in the global mean and the tropics. We find that the well-documented last-millennium cooling trend coincides with persistent energy loss, largest early in the millennium, and a reduction in upper-ocean heat content. The cooling trend differs by season and latitude, and is associated with anomalies in outgoing longwave radiation suggestive of an eastward shift in Indo–Pacific convection. Following large volcanic eruptions, ocean heat content anomalies persist for 10–20 years on average, supporting previous evidence that multidecadal cooling was forced by decadally paced eruptions. The reconstruction also reveals that the current rate of energy gain is unprecedented relative to the period before 1850.

中文摘要

摘要 地球大气层顶部的能量不平衡是一个关键的气候系统指标，但其自然变率受限于较短的观测记录和耦合气候模式中的较大不确定性。尽管现有的海洋热含量重建提供了更长时间尺度的视角，但它们无法区分短波辐射和长波辐射的贡献，从而掩盖了潜在的过程。我们通过数据同化方法，结合代用资料和耦合气候模拟器的动力学，重建了过去千年（公元850–2000年）的大气层顶部辐射及相关地表变量，将能量收支记录延伸至工业革命前时期。验证结果表明，重建的辐射场具有较好的技能，尤其是在全球平均和热带地区。我们发现，有充分记录的过去千年冷却趋势与持续的能量损失（千年早期最为显著）以及上层海洋热含量的减少相吻合。冷却趋势随季节和纬度而异，并与向外长波辐射的异常相关，暗示印度-太平洋对流区向东移动。在大型火山喷发后，海洋热含量异常平均持续10–20年，这支持了先前关于数十年尺度冷却由数十年间隔的火山喷发驱动的证据。重建结果还表明，当前的能量增益速率相对于1850年以前时期是前所未有的。

6. JC — Assessing Ocean Forcing on Sea Surface Temperature Variability from Surface Heat Budget

Abstract

Abstract This paper compares three methods for quantifying stochastic ocean forcing to low frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variability from the surface heat budget in the framework of a simple stochastic climate model, especially in the case of red noise ocean forcing. The three methods are: PT21 (Patrizio and Thompson, 2021), PT22 (Patrizio and Thompson, 2022) and LGD23 (Liu et al., 2023). PT21 estimates the ratio of ocean over atmosphere forcing as the ratio of the covariance of SST tendency with ocean heat transport over the covariance with surface heat flux, while PT22 and LGD23 first derive the time series of oceanic and atmospheric forcing before estimating their ratio. The three methods are first applied to synthetic data of the stochastic climate model and then to the mid-latitude North Atlantic in observations. It is found that the LGD23 method provides an unbiased estimation of oceanic forcing with a modest sampling error at low frequency, if the persistence time of the sea surface salinity can be treated as a good approximation of that of SST associated with ocean heat transport. The PT22 method has the smallest sampling error, but tends to underestimate the ocean forcing modestly when the ocean forcing is a red noise process. The PT21 method gives the correct ratio of oceanic over atmospheric forcing in spectral density in theory, but suffers from a very large sampling error for practical application to a data set of a finite length of decades. We recommend the use of both LGD23 and PT22 as two complimentary methods for the estimation of ocean forcing, with the PT22 providing likely a lower bound for red noise ocean forcing.

中文摘要

摘要 本文在简单随机气候模型框架下，比较了三种从海表热收支中量化随机海洋强迫对低频海表温度（SST）变率影响的方法，特别关注红噪声海洋强迫情形。这三种方法分别为：PT21（Patrizio and Thompson, 2021）、PT22（Patrizio and Thompson, 2022）和LGD23（Liu et al., 2023）。PT21方法通过计算SST倾向与海洋热输送协方差同其与海表热通量协方差的比值来估算海洋强迫与大气强迫的比率；而PT22和LGD23方法则先分别推导海洋强迫和大气强迫的时间序列，再估算其比率。首先将三种方法应用于随机气候模型的合成数据，随后应用于观测中北大西洋中纬度区域。研究发现：若海表盐度的持续时长可视为与海洋热输送相关的SST持续时长的良好近似，则LGD23方法能在低频段提供无偏的海洋强迫估计，且采样误差适中。PT22方法采样误差最小，但当海洋强迫为红噪声过程时，会略微低估海洋强迫。PT21方法理论上能给出正确的海洋强迫与大气强迫谱密度比值，但在实际应用于数十年有限长度数据集时存在极大采样误差。建议将LGD23和PT22作为两种互补方法用于海洋强迫估算，其中PT22方法可能为红噪声海洋强迫提供下界估计。

7. JC — Separating atmospheric and ocean-mediated impacts of time-evolving industrial and biomass burning aerosols on historical boreal summer climate

Abstract

Abstract The spatial pattern of industrial aerosol emissions has changed markedly over the past century, alongside regional shifts in biomass burning (BMB) sources. While previous studies examined evolving industrial aerosol effects, the relative contributions of atmospheric radiative vs . ocean-mediated responses to combined aerosol sources remain unclear. Using global atmosphere-land simulations driven by time-evolving historical industrial and BMB aerosol emissions and aerosol-induced sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, we identify two leading modes of multi-decadal aerosol optical depth (AOD) variability in boreal summer, together accounting for 94% of the AOD variance from 1930–2030. Mode 1 depicts a monotonic increase over low latitudes, while Mode 2 describes a sinusoidal trajectory over Northern Hemisphere continents with weaker opposite changes over South and East Asia. These AOD modes drive distinct atmospheric circulation, precipitation and land surface air temperature responses. We separate the atmospheric radiative and ocean-mediated pathways of response through a novel experimental design based on Community Atmosphere Model version 5 forced with time-evolving aerosol emissions and aerosol-induced SSTs individually and in combination; aerosol-induced SSTs are derived from the Community Earth System Model version 1 Single-Forcing and All-Forcing Large Ensembles. We find that ocean-mediated effects dominate the large-scale atmospheric circulation and precipitation responses, while atmospheric radiative effects induce robust regional impacts and modulate the ocean-mediated response in remote regions. Our results demonstrate that transient aerosol impacts reflect a dynamic balance between atmospheric radiative and ocean-mediated pathways of response, and highlight the importance of considering the evolving spatial pattern of aerosol forcing when assessing aerosol-driven climate variations.

中文摘要

摘要 过去一个世纪以来，工业气溶胶排放的空间格局发生了显著变化，同时生物质燃烧源也出现了区域性的转变。尽管已有研究探讨了不断演变的工业气溶胶效应，但大气辐射响应与海洋介导响应在综合气溶胶源中的相对贡献仍不明确。利用由随时间演变的历史工业与生物质燃烧气溶胶排放以及气溶胶引起的海表温度异常驱动的全球大气-陆面模拟，我们识别出北半球夏季多年代际气溶胶光学厚度变率的两种主导模态，两者共同解释了1930–2030年间气溶胶光学厚度方差的94%。模态1描述了低纬度地区的单调增加趋势，而模态2则呈现北半球大陆上的正弦轨迹，并在南亚和东亚伴有较弱的反向变化。这些气溶胶光学厚度模态驱动了不同的大气环流、降水和陆面气温响应。通过基于第五版社区大气模式的新型实验设计——该模式分别单独和联合使用随时间演变的气溶胶排放与气溶胶引起的海表温度进行强迫，其中气溶胶引起的海表温度源自第一版社区地球系统模式的单强迫与全强迫大集合——我们分离了大气辐射与海洋介导的响应路径。研究发现，海洋介导效应主导了大尺度大气环流和降水响应，而大气辐射效应则引发稳健的区域性影响，并在偏远地区调节海洋介导的响应。我们的结果表明，瞬态气溶胶影响反映了大气辐射与海洋介导响应路径之间的动态平衡，并强调了在评估气溶胶驱动的气候变率时考虑气溶胶强迫空间格局演变的重要性。

8. GRL — A Strictly Geostrophic Product of Sea‐Surface Velocities From the SWOT Fast‐Sampling Phase

  • 作者：Takaya Uchida, Badarvada Yadidya, Vadim Bertrand, Jia-Xian Chang, Brian Arbic, Jay Shriver, Julien Le Sommer
  • 发表日期：2026-07-22
  • DOI：https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl121978

Abstract

Abstract While geostrophy remains the simplest and most practical balance to extract velocity information from sea‐surface height anomaly (SSHa), confusions remain within the oceanographic community to what extent this balance can be applied to altimetric observations with the launch of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite. Given the limited temporal resolution of SWOT, many studies have resorted to claiming that the spatially filtered SSHa fields correspond to the geostrophic component. This introduces the ambiguity of which spatial scale to choose. Here, we build upon the recent developments in internal tide (IT) corrections (Yadidya, Arbic, et al., 2025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ea004511 ) and apply a dynamic mode decomposition (DMD)‐based method introduced by Lapo, Ichinaga, and Kutz (2025, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2415786122 ) to robustly extract the geostrophic component associated with sub‐inertial frequencies from the SWOT one‐day‐repeat orbit; we distribute the global data set as a public good. We provide the joint probability density function (PDF) of vorticity and strain, and spectra of SSHa at a few cross‐over regions.

中文摘要

摘要 尽管地转平衡仍然是利用海面高度异常（SSHa）提取流速信息的最简单且最实用的平衡关系，但随着地表水与海洋地形（SWOT）卫星的发射，海洋学界对于该平衡关系在多大程度上适用于测高观测仍存在困惑。鉴于SWOT有限的时间分辨率，许多研究倾向于声称空间滤波后的SSHa场对应地转分量，这引入了空间尺度选择的模糊性。本文基于近期内潮（IT）校正的进展（Yadidya, Arbic, et al., 2025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ea004511），应用Lapo, Ichinaga和Kutz（2025, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2415786122）提出的基于动态模态分解（DMD）的方法，从SWOT一日重复轨道中稳健提取与亚惯性频率相关的地转分量；我们将全球数据集作为公共产品发布。我们提供了涡度和应变的联合概率密度函数（PDF），以及若干交叉区域SSHa的谱分析结果。

9. GRL — Marine Heatwave Imprints on Salinity in the Northwest Atlantic

Abstract

Abstract Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are increasing in frequency and intensity in global boundary current systems such as the Gulf Stream (GS), where ocean circulation regulates upper‐ocean heat and water‐mass properties. We examine temperature–salinity co‐evolution during MHWs in the Northwest (NW) Atlantic using satellite observations and ocean reanalysis for 2012–2023. Applying a consistent threshold‐based framework to sea surface temperature and sea surface salinity (SSS), we identify co‐occurring MHWs and salinity extremes and evaluate their spatial extent and vertical structure. Results reveal a statistically significant high‐salinity imprint during MHWs along the GS North wall and shelf‐break corridor, consistent with advection of warm, saline GS waters preconditioning the upper ocean for vertically extensive warming. Low‐SSS extremes tend to cover greater area on the continental shelf, where surface freshening likely favors shallow, surface‐intensified MHWs. These results underscore SSS as a critical diagnostic for advective water‐mass influence and stratification during MHWs in the NW Atlantic.

中文摘要

摘要 海洋热浪（MHWs）在全球边界流系统（如墨西哥湾流，GS）中的发生频率和强度不断增加，在这些区域，海洋环流调节着上层海洋的热量和水团特性。我们利用2012–2023年的卫星观测和海洋再分析数据，研究了西北大西洋海洋热浪期间的温度-盐度协同演变。通过将一致的基于阈值的框架应用于海表温度和海表盐度（SSS），我们识别了同时发生的海洋热浪与盐度极端事件，并评估了它们的空间范围和垂直结构。结果显示，在墨西哥湾流北壁和陆架-断裂带走廊沿线，海洋热浪期间存在统计上显著的高盐度印记，这与暖咸的墨西哥湾流水体的平流输送一致，该过程为上层海洋的垂直广泛增温提供了前提条件。低海表盐度极端事件往往在陆架上覆盖更大面积，此处表层淡化可能有利于形成浅层、海表强化的海洋热浪。这些结果强调了海表盐度作为西北大西洋海洋热浪期间平流水团影响和层结关键诊断指标的重要性。

10. GRL — Enhanced Tidal Mixing Strengthened and Stabilized the AMOC During the Bølling–Allerød

Abstract

Abstract Proxy records indicate a robust Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the Bølling–Allerød (BA) interstadial, despite substantial meltwater discharge. Using ocean circulation simulations, we demonstrate that enhanced tidal mixing, sustained by lower‐than‐modern sea levels, significantly strengthens the BA AMOC and increases its freshwater collapse threshold from 0.04 to 0.12 Sv. We find that the weak stratification characteristic of the BA period triggers a positive feedback that amplifies both tidal mixing and overturning. These results identify tidal mixing as a critical, yet previously underexplored, control on AMOC tipping behavior during abrupt climate transitions. Characterizing the AMOC’s response to such forcings provides vital insights into the mechanisms governing AMOC stability and variability under future climate change scenarios.

中文摘要

摘要代理记录表明，在波令-阿勒罗德（BA）间冰阶期间，尽管存在大量融水排放，大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）仍保持强劲。通过海洋环流模拟，我们证明由低于现代海平面维持的增强潮汐混合显著强化了BA时期的AMOC，并将其淡水崩溃阈值从0.04 Sv提升至0.12 Sv。研究发现，BA时期特有的弱层结特征触发了正反馈机制，同时放大了潮汐混合与翻转环流。这些结果揭示了潮汐混合作为此前未被充分认识的关键因素，在气候突变过渡期对AMOC临界行为具有控制作用。表征AMOC对此类强迫的响应，为理解未来气候变化情景下AMOC稳定性与变率的主控机制提供了重要见解。

11. GRL — Future Global Warming Constrained by Observed AMOC Strength

Abstract

Abstract The spread in projected global warming across the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models under idealized forcing has been statistically linked to the inter‐model difference in climatological Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (cAMOC), yet the underlying physical mechanisms remain unclear. Here, we analyze realistic future scenarios in CMIP models using a zero‐layer energy balance model (EBM) to establish a physical connection between cAMOC and future global warming. We find that enabled by weak stratification, a stronger cAMOC is associated with stronger ocean heat uptake efficiency and more negative climate feedbacks. Incorporating this connection into the zero‐layer EBM reveals an inverse relationship between cAMOC and future global warming. Applying the observed AMOC strength to this relationship constrains the 95% confidence interval of future sea surface warming from 0.51°C–2.25°C, 0.89°C–3.23°C, and 1.74°C–5.49°C to 0.83°C–2.19°C, 1.53°C–3.05°C, and 2.97°C–5.10°C under low‐ to high‐emission scenarios, respectively.

中文摘要

摘要 在理想化强迫条件下，耦合模式比较计划（CMIP）模式预估的全球变暖幅度差异，在统计上与气候态大西洋经向翻转环流（cAMOC）的模式间差异存在关联，但其背后的物理机制尚不明确。本文利用零层能量平衡模式（EBM）分析CMIP模式中的现实未来情景，建立了cAMOC与未来全球变暖之间的物理联系。研究发现，在弱层结条件下，更强的cAMOC对应更强的海洋热吸收效率和更负的气候反馈。将这一关联纳入零层EBM后，揭示了cAMOC与未来全球变暖之间的反比关系。将观测到的AMOC强度应用于该关系，可将低、中、高排放情景下未来海表增温的95%置信区间分别从0.51°C–2.25°C、0.89°C–3.23°C和1.74°C–5.49°C收窄至0.83°C–2.19°C、1.53°C–3.05°C和2.97°C–5.10°C。

12. GRL — Assessing Dynamical Contributions to SWOT Sea Surface Height in an Internal Tide Hotspot

Abstract

Abstract The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission has revealed high‐frequency sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) variability associated with internal gravity waves, yet comparison with in situ observations remains limited. Here, we analyze a mooring array beneath the swaths of SWOT Cal/Val south of New Caledonia, an internal tide (IT) hotspot in the southwestern tropical Pacific. SWOT agrees closely with mooring‐derived SSHA, exhibiting three times larger variance than gridded SSHA from nadir altimetry. This excess variance is mainly driven by coherent ITs, explicitly extracted from SWOT swaths, with amplitudes exceeding 10 cm. Comparison with mooring‐based estimates demonstrates centimeter‐level accuracy in the retrieved IT signal. SWOT‐derived ITs reveal substantial errors in empirical IT atlases, routinely used to correct SWOT. Particularly, absolute (relative) errors in SSHA‐derived current velocities exceed 15 cm (80%) in 10% of cases during SWOT Cal/Val, calling for improved methods to separate wave‐like and balanced motions.

中文摘要

摘要 地表水与海洋地形（SWOT）任务揭示了与内重力波相关的高频海面高度异常（SSHA）变率，然而其与现场观测的对比仍十分有限。本文分析了位于新喀里多尼亚南部SWOT校准/验证（Cal/Val）条带下方的一个锚系阵列，该区域是西南热带太平洋的内潮（IT）热点区。SWOT与锚系观测的SSHA高度吻合，其方差比星下点高度计网格化SSHA高出三倍。这一超额方差主要由从SWOT条带中显式提取的相干内潮驱动，其振幅超过10厘米。与基于锚系的估算对比表明，所提取的内潮信号精度达到厘米级。SWOT反演的内潮揭示了常规用于校正SWOT的经验内潮图谱存在显著误差。特别是在SWOT Cal/Val期间，基于SSHA反演的海流速度的绝对（相对）误差在10%的案例中超过15厘米/秒（80%），这要求改进方法以分离波动运动和准平衡运动。

13. JC — Ocean Heat Uptake Dynamics in the Far Eastern Equatorial Pacific

Abstract

Abstract The eastern equatorial Pacific plays an important role in Earth’s climate, acting as a global focus of oceanic heat uptake and supplying a large fraction of the northward heat transport in the Atlantic Ocean. A major heat uptake hotspot occurs in the region’s far eastern reaches, where the cold pool, containing the coldest sea surface temperatures anywhere on the equator, is found. Yet, while there is ample understanding of the processes driving vertical turbulent mixing, a major heat uptake-controlling mechanism along the equator, little is known as to why the uptake is strongest in the furthest east. This suggests that heat uptake there is likely governed by distinct drivers. In this work, we elucidate the dynamics regulating oceanic heat uptake in the far eastern equatorial Pacific (FEP) in a realistic, high-resolution model of the region. We find that heat uptake in the FEP is primarily governed by the strength of equatorial upwelling, which uplifts isotherms toward the surface and thus enables direct heat injection by thermal radiation into the ocean’s interior layers. In contrast to previous studies, we also find that the FEP’s cold sea surface temperature signal is modulated by northward wind-forced surface buoyancy fluxes, which may trigger convective mixing and reinforce the effects of mixing by wind-generated upper-ocean shear and deep-cycle turbulence.

中文摘要

摘要 东赤道太平洋在地球气候中扮演着重要角色，是全球海洋热量吸收的焦点区域，并为大西洋向北的热量输送提供了很大一部分。该区域最东端存在一个主要的热量吸收热点，那里分布着赤道上海表温度最低的冷池。然而，尽管人们对驱动垂直湍流混合（沿赤道控制热量吸收的主要机制）的过程已有充分理解，但对于为何热量吸收在最东端最强却知之甚少。这表明该区域的热量吸收可能受不同驱动因素控制。本研究利用该区域的高分辨率真实模型，阐明了调控东赤道太平洋最东端（FEP）海洋热量吸收的动力机制。我们发现，FEP的热量吸收主要受赤道上升流强度控制，上升流将等温线抬升至海表附近，从而使热辐射能够直接将热量注入海洋内部层。与以往研究不同，我们还发现FEP的冷海表温度信号受北向风强迫的海表浮力通量调制，这可能触发对流混合，并增强风生上层海洋剪切和深循环湍流引起的混合效应。

14. GRL — Solar‐Cycle Modulation of Subsurface Ocean Memory via the North Pacific Eastern Subtropical Mode Water

Abstract

Abstract The North Pacific eastern subtropical mode water (NPESTMW) connects the subtropics and tropics, influencing climate variability on interannual to decadal timescales. Using eight decades of ocean reanalysis, we show that the 11‐year solar‐cycle robustly modulates NPESTMW volume. NPESTMW formation is suppressed 1–2 years after solar maxima: high solar activity deepens the Aleutian Low, reducing wintertime wind stress and surface heat loss, producing shallower mixed layers. Concurrently, cyclonic wind‐stress anomalies drive Ekman upwelling, further inhibiting subduction. Conversely, solar minima favor mixed layer deepening, Ekman downwelling, and thus enhanced subduction, increasing NPESTMW volume. Solar‐forcing‐only CMIP6 experiments reproduce these responses, confirming solar variability as a causal driver. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation gates this solar–mode‐water relationship, amplifying solar‐cycle expression during warm phases and explaining the enhanced solar imprint on decadal climate since the 1990s. These results reveal a novel pathway linking solar forcing to decadal climate predictability through subsurface ocean memory.

中文摘要

摘要 北太平洋东部副热带模态水（NPESTMW）连接副热带与热带区域，在年际至年代际时间尺度上影响气候变率。利用八十年海洋再分析资料，我们揭示了11年太阳周期对NPESTMW体积的显著调制作用。在太阳活动极大期后1-2年，NPESTMW的形成受到抑制：高太阳活动加深了阿留申低压，减弱了冬季风应力和海表热损失，导致混合层变浅。同时，气旋式风应力异常驱动埃克曼上升流，进一步抑制了潜沉过程。相反，太阳活动极小期有利于混合层加深和埃克曼下降流，从而增强潜沉作用，增加NPESTMW体积。仅考虑太阳强迫的CMIP6实验重现了这些响应，证实太阳变率是因果驱动因子。大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO）调控着这种太阳-模态水关系，在暖相位期间放大太阳周期信号，并解释了自20世纪90年代以来太阳印记在年代际气候中的增强现象。这些结果揭示了一条通过次表层海洋记忆将太阳强迫与年代际气候可预测性相联系的新路径。

15. GRL — Entrainment‐Based Framework for Understanding Extratropical Moist Heat Extremes

Abstract

Abstract In summer, the atmosphere over extratropical continents is close to moist convective neutrality, whereby near‐surface moist static energy, , is tightly constrained by free‐tropospheric saturation moist static energy, . During extreme moist heat events, however, often exceeds this limit, indicating a breakdown of moist neutrality. Here we investigate the role of dry‐air entrainment in this breakdown and in intensifying moist heat extremes using reanalysis data and a global climate model. Simulations with different convective entrainment rates show that dry‐air entrainment intensifies extratropical moist heat extremes, a result we interpret using the zero‐buoyancy plume model. Using this model, changes in moist heat extremes under warming are explained by a combination of changes in free‐tropospheric saturation MSE, lower‐tropospheric saturation deficit, and an effective bulk entrainment rate. The results provide a physically‐grounded interpretation of extratropical moist heat extremes and their projected response to climate warming.

中文摘要

摘要 夏季，中纬度大陆上空的大气接近湿对流中性状态，此时近地表湿静力能受到自由对流层饱和湿静力能的严格约束。然而，在极端湿热事件期间，常超过这一界限，表明湿中性状态被打破。本研究利用再分析资料和全球气候模式，探讨干空气卷夹在这一打破过程中以及加剧湿热极端事件的作用。不同对流卷夹率的模拟实验表明，干空气卷夹会加剧中纬度湿热极端事件，我们利用零浮力羽流模型对此结果进行了解释。通过该模型，变暖背景下湿热极端事件的变化可由自由对流层饱和湿静力能、低层对流层饱和亏缺以及有效总体卷夹率的变化共同解释。研究结果为中纬度湿热极端事件及其对气候变暖的预估响应提供了基于物理机制的解释。

16. GRL — Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Drives Multidecadal Changes in the Impact of Indian Ocean Dipole on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation

Abstract

Abstract The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can influence the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) development 1 year ahead, allowing for prediction of ENSO events up to 14 months in advance. Using observational data sets and numerical experiments, we demonstrate that this IOD‐ENSO connection varies considerably on multidecadal timescales, which are largely controlled by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). During the negative AMO phase, sea surface temperature cooling in the tropical Atlantic enhances mean precipitation and convective activity over the tropical western‐central Pacific. This intensifies the Indo‐Pacific Walker circulation and strengthens the IOD‐related surface zonal wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific. These amplified wind anomalies, in turn, generate larger subsurface ocean temperature anomalies in the region, creating more favorable conditions for the development of ensuing ENSO events. In contrast, these modulations are absent during the positive AMO phase. Our findings enhance the understanding of inter‐basin interactions and are critical for improving ENSO prediction.

中文摘要

摘要 印度洋偶极子（IOD）可提前一年影响厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）的发展，从而实现对ENSO事件长达14个月的预测。利用观测数据集和数值实验，我们证明这种IOD-ENSO关联在多年代际时间尺度上存在显著变化，而这种变化主要受大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO）控制。在AMO负位相期间，热带大西洋海表温度冷却增强了热带中西太平洋的平均降水和对流活动。这加强了印度-太平洋沃克环流，并增强了热带西太平洋与IOD相关的表层纬向风异常。这些放大的风异常进而在该区域产生更大的次表层海洋温度异常，为后续ENSO事件的发展创造了更有利的条件。相反，在AMO正位相期间，这些调制作用则不存在。我们的发现增强了对海盆间相互作用的理解，对改进ENSO预测具有关键意义。

17. GRL — Increased Frequency, Duration, and Area of Winter Polynyas North of Greenland in a Warming Climate

Abstract

Abstract Polynyas play a crucial role in the polar marine ecosystems and climate system. Four winter polynya events north of Greenland have been observed, but the response of winter polynyas to climate warming remains unknown. This study investigates projected changes in winter polynyas in the Wandel Sea north of Greenland using the AWI‐CM3 climate model, which features 2‐km ocean‐ice resolution in the Arctic. We show that the model successfully simulates the main characteristics of observed polynyas. Future projections indicate that, under continued climate warming, winter polynyas will increase substantially in frequency, duration, and spatial extent once sea ice thickness falls below approximately 1.5 m. By 2100, polynyas could occur up to twice per winter, with a winter total duration exceeding 15 days under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario. Our analysis indicates that sea ice thinning is likely the primary cause of these changes, as it reduces ice strength and enhances ice mobility.

中文摘要

摘要 冰间湖在极地海洋生态系统和气候系统中扮演着关键角色。格陵兰岛北部已观测到四次冬季冰间湖事件，但冬季冰间湖对气候变暖的响应仍不清楚。本研究利用AWI‐CM3气候模式（该模式在北极地区具有2公里海洋-冰分辨率）调查了格陵兰岛北部旺德尔海冬季冰间湖的预估变化。结果表明，该模式成功模拟了观测到的冰间湖的主要特征。未来预估显示，在持续气候变暖条件下，一旦海冰厚度降至约1.5米以下，冬季冰间湖的频率、持续时间和空间范围将显著增加。到2100年，在SSP5‐8.5情景下，冰间湖每个冬季可能发生多达两次，冬季总持续时间超过15天。我们的分析表明，海冰变薄很可能是这些变化的主要原因，因为它降低了海冰强度并增强了海冰流动性。

18. GRL — Temporal Heterogeneity of In Situ Ocean Observing Capacity Could Cause an Artificial Intensification of Extreme Warm Water Events Globally

Abstract

Abstract Extreme warm events in the ocean, known as marine heatwaves (MHWs), can have severe and even irreversible impacts on marine ecosystems, underscoring the imperative need to quantify their anthropogenic changes based on observations. In situ temperature profiles over the past three decades reveal an outsized global increase (over 10% per decade) in intensity of MHWs, whereas both ocean reanalysis and climate simulations suggest changes should be an order of magnitude smaller. Here we show that the paradox arises primarily from an artificial trend of MHWs caused by sparse‐to‐abundant temporal evolution of amount of temperature profiles. Sparsity of temperature profiles in the early period systematically underestimates intensity of MHWs, while subsequent densification of temperature profiles alleviates such underestimation, introducing an artificial positive trend of MHW intensity. Our findings indicate that temporal heterogeneity of in situ ocean observing capacity may severely contaminate the genuine response of extreme events to global warming.

中文摘要

摘要 海洋中的极端暖事件，即海洋热浪（MHWs），可能对海洋生态系统造成严重甚至不可逆转的影响，这凸显了基于观测数据量化其人为变化的迫切需求。过去三十年的原位温度剖面数据显示，全球海洋热浪强度出现了显著增加（每十年超过10%），而海洋再分析和气候模拟均表明这种变化应小一个数量级。本文揭示，这一矛盾主要源于温度剖面数量从稀疏到丰富的时序演变所导致的海洋热浪人为趋势。早期温度剖面的稀疏性系统性地低估了海洋热浪的强度，而随后温度剖面的加密缓解了这种低估，从而引入了海洋热浪强度的人为正趋势。我们的研究结果表明，原位海洋观测能力的时间异质性可能严重污染极端事件对全球变暖的真实响应。

边缘相关条目

命中物理海洋学关键词，但同时涉及其他学科领域，仅供参考。

  • GRL — Earlier Timing of the Annual Deepest Mixed Layer and Phytoplankton Bloom North of the Kuroshio Extension After the 2010s（DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl122915）
    • 命中: Kuroshio, mixed layer, reanalysis
    • 排除: phytoplankton
  • GRL — Reassessing Last Glacial Maximum Cooling With Proxy‐Constrained Emergent Relationships（DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl123083）
    • 命中: sea surface temperature
    • 排除: paleoclimate
  • Communications Earth & Environment — Projected declines in zooplankton energy supporting Northwest European Shelf ecosystems（DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03840-1）
    • 命中: overturning circulation
    • 排除: zooplankton

待人工核实

元数据缺失（摘要 / DOI / 作者），需人工核查后再纳入。

  • Ocean Modelling — Numerical assessment of wave responses to wind wakes induced by an offshore wind energy area on the Scotian Shelf
    • 缺失项: 摘要缺失或过短
    • 链接: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2026.102802