本期覆盖 2026-07-24 至 2026-07-31，共收录高置信度文章 16 篇，边缘相关 2 篇，待人工核实 2 篇。

本周亮点

亮点 1：34°S Atlantic Meridional Freshwater Transport Set by Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheets and Meltwater in the Past 22,000 years

期刊：JGR: Oceans ｜ DOI：https://doi.org/10.1029/2026jc024371

English summary

This study uses transient model experiments over the past 22,000 years to show that the Atlantic Meridional Freshwater Transport at 34°S is governed by the salinity contrast between North Atlantic Deep Water and Antarctic Bottom Water, rather than AMOC strength. The findings challenge the traditional view of this transport as an AMOC instability indicator and highlight the role of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and meltwater in setting the freshwater budget. This has significant implications for understanding past and future AMOC stability.

中文解读

本研究利用过去2.2万年的瞬变模型实验，表明34°S处的大西洋经向淡水输送由北大西洋深层水与南极底层水之间的盐度对比控制，而非AMOC强度。这一发现挑战了将该输送作为AMOC不稳定指标的传统观点，并强调了北半球冰盖和融水在淡水预算中的作用，对理解过去和未来的AMOC稳定性具有重要意义。

亮点 2：Internal Tide Displacements Enhance Surface‐Interior Heat Exchange in the Indonesian Seas

期刊：GRL ｜ DOI：https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl120296

English summary

This study uses a high-resolution regional model that explicitly resolves internal tides to show that tidal displacements lift cold thermocline water into the surface ocean, enhancing surface-interior heat exchange in the Indonesian Seas. The heat exchange facilitated by tides shows strong seasonality, intensifying during monsoons in areas where the mixed layer is shallow. This work provides a new mechanism for controlling sea surface temperature in a region critical for global climate.

中文解读

本研究利用显式解析内潮的高分辨率区域模式，表明潮汐位移将冷斜温层水抬升至海洋表层，增强了印度尼西亚海域的表面-内部热交换。潮汐促进的热交换具有强烈的季节性，在季风期间混合层较浅的区域增强。这项工作为控制对全球气候至关重要的海表温度提供了新机制。

文章详览

1. JPO — Interannual Salinity Variability on the Ross Sea Continental Shelf in a Regional Ocean–Sea Ice–Ice Shelf Model. Part II: Internal Oceanic Processes

Abstract

Abstract This is Part II of a study investigating the processes that regulate interannual salinity variability on the Ross Sea continental shelf using a coupled ocean–sea ice–ice shelf model. Part I identified the role of surface forcing. Here we focus on the internal oceanic processes and quantify their contribution. We show that surface-generated salinity anomalies propagate into deeper layers with a lag of 1–2 years, a process strongly modulated by vertical stratification. We further identify a negative feedback: surface salinization enhances the formation and export of High Salinity Shelf Water, which in turn promotes the inflow of fresher upper-layer water onto the continental shelf, thereby decreasing surface salinity. Thus, while southwesterly wind anomalies over the eastern continental shelf regulate sea ice production and associated salt rejection, which primarily drives salinity variability (Part I), the resulting overturning circulation, partly modulated by winds over the western continental shelf, acts to dampen this variability. Together with Part I, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential mechanisms driving interannual salinity variability, shedding light on understanding the observed salinity variability on the Ross Sea continental shelf.

中文摘要

摘要 本文是系列研究的第二部分，旨在利用耦合海洋-海冰-冰架模型，探讨调控罗斯海大陆架盐度年际变率的机制。第一部分已确定表面强迫的作用，本部分则聚焦于内部海洋过程并量化其贡献。研究表明，表面生成的盐度异常以1-2年的滞后时间传播至更深层，这一过程受垂直层结的强烈调节。我们进一步识别出一种负反馈机制：表面盐度增加促进了高盐陆架水的形成与输出，进而促使较淡的上层水流入大陆架，从而降低表面盐度。因此，尽管东部大陆架上空的西南风异常调节海冰生成及相关的盐分排斥过程，这主要驱动盐度变率（见第一部分），但由此产生的翻转环流，部分受西部大陆架上空风的影响，却起到抑制这种变率的作用。结合第一部分，本研究全面分析了驱动盐度年际变率的潜在机制，为理解罗斯海大陆架观测到的盐度变率提供了启示。

2. JPO — Observations of turbulent structures at the base of the ocean mixed layer

Abstract

Abstract Direct observations of coherent turbulent structures at the base of the ocean surface boundary layer are rare. Here, we present a unique dataset from a drifting thermistor chain that captured temperature structures associated with mixed layer and transition layer turbulence. Following a storm with wind speeds up to 15 m s −1 , the mixed layer deepened from 35 to 45 m depth over 6 days. Within the transition layer we observe temperature fluctuations indicative of shear-driven turbulence, including features consistent with Kelvin-Helmholtz and Holmboe instabilities. We examine the size and frequency of these structures in the context of the surface forcing, identifying four distinct regimes based on wind, wave, and surface heat flux magnitude. Thorpe scale–based estimates of entrainment velocity align with the observed mixed layer deepening when averaged over the upper portion of the transition layer. This rare observational dataset offers new insight into the mechanisms controlling mixing at the base of the mixed layer and provides a valuable benchmark for future numerical studies of stratified turbulence that resolve turbulent overturns.

中文摘要

摘要 直接观测海洋表面边界层底部相干湍流结构的机会十分罕见。本文展示了一套来自漂移式热敏电阻链的独特数据集，该数据集捕捉到了与混合层及过渡层湍流相关的温度结构。在一次风速高达15米/秒的风暴过后，混合层在6天内从35米深度加深至45米。在过渡层内，我们观测到指示剪切驱动湍流的温度波动，其中包括与开尔文-亥姆霍兹不稳定性及霍尔姆博不稳定性一致的特征。我们结合表面强迫条件，考察了这些结构的尺寸与频率，并根据风、波浪及表面热通量的大小识别出四种不同的状态。基于索普尺度的夹带速度估算，在过渡层上部平均时，与观测到的混合层加深情况相吻合。这一罕见的观测数据集为理解混合层底部混合控制机制提供了新见解，并为未来针对分层湍流中湍流翻转的数值研究提供了宝贵的基准。

3. JPO — Langmuir mixing effects on a coastal upwelling front

Abstract

Abstract Langmuir turbulence can generate vigorous vertical mixing in the ocean surface boundary layer and has the potential to influence coastal upwelling fronts. However, its impact on the dynamics of these fronts remains poorly understood. In this study, we investigate this influence by incorporating a recently developed KPP–based Langmuir mixing parameterization into a coupled wave–circulation model. The results show that Langmuir mixing plays a dominant role in controlling frontal evolution. Strong Langmuir mixing reduces the vertical shear of frontal currents, suppresses the development of frontal instability, and weakens the vertical–shear–driven forward energy transfer. Sensitivity experiments further indicate that when Langmuir mixing is weak, as reflected by a small Langmuir enhancement factor, its influence on frontal instability is minimal. These findings demonstrate that Langmuir mixing can fundamentally alter the dynamics and energetics of coastal upwelling fronts and highlight the importance of including Langmuir mixing parameterizations to achieve accurate simulations of coastal circulation and frontal processes.

中文摘要

摘要 朗缪尔湍流能在海洋表面边界层产生强烈的垂直混合，并有可能影响沿岸上升流锋面。然而，其对锋面动力学的影响仍知之甚少。本研究通过将一种近期开发的基于KPP的朗缪尔混合参数化方案纳入耦合波-环流模型中，探讨了这一影响。结果表明，朗缪尔混合在控制锋面演变中起主导作用。强朗缪尔混合减弱了锋面流的垂直切变，抑制了锋面不稳定性的发展，并削弱了由垂直切变驱动的正向能量传递。敏感性实验进一步表明，当朗缪尔混合较弱时，如朗缪尔增强因子较小所反映的，其对锋面不稳定性的影响微乎其微。这些发现证明，朗缪尔混合能从根本上改变沿岸上升流锋面的动力学和能量学特征，并强调了纳入朗缪尔混合参数化方案对于实现沿岸环流和锋面过程精确模拟的重要性。

4. JPO — Orthogonality of coastal trapped waves

Abstract

Abstract Coastal trapped wave modes are shown to be orthogonal in the sense that they make independent contributions to the energy of the wave field. The hydrostatic Boussinesq dynamics on an f -plane, linearized around a state of rest, are formulated as a (generalized) Schrödinger equation, which exposes the Hermitian structure of the wave operator that implies the orthogonality of eigenmodes. This formulation, which becomes particularly simple in weak form, is parlayed into a finite-element discretization that preserves the symmetries of the original problem and therefore the energy conservation and orthogonality of modes. The geostrophic momentum approximation, under which the orthogonality of modes has been recognized previously, is reprised and discussed in the present context to emphasize that low-frequency coastal trapped waves are edge waves. Their dynamics are governed by boundary potential-vorticity anomalies, both Bretherton-type contributions familiar from the quasi-geostrophic equations and lateral contributions that are important for steep slopes and coastal walls.

中文摘要

摘要 研究表明，海岸陷波模态在正交意义上是相互独立的，它们对波场能量的贡献互不重叠。在静止状态线性化的f平面上，静水Boussinesq动力学被表述为（广义）薛定谔方程，这揭示了波算子的厄米结构，从而确保了特征模态的正交性。该表述在弱形式下尤为简洁，并转化为有限元离散化，保留了原问题的对称性，因此保持了能量守恒和模态的正交性。此前已认识到模态正交性的地转动量近似，在此背景下重新讨论，以强调低频海岸陷波为边缘波。其动力学受边界位势涡度异常控制，既包括准地转方程中熟悉的Bretherton型贡献，也包括对陡坡和海岸壁重要的侧向贡献。

5. JPO — Dynamics of the Southeast Indian Ridge Storm Track Evaluated Using a Wave Activity Flux Framework

Abstract

Abstract Regions of elevated eddy kinetic energy (EKE) downstream from topographic ridge systems of the Southern Ocean are analogous to atmospheric storm tracks. Typically investigated using a three-dimensional wave activity flux framework, the dynamics of storm tracks are primarily governed by energy transfers between the mean and eddy fields. Here, 3 years of high-resolution numerical model output is used to diagnose these eddy–mean field interactions and the physical mechanisms responsible for initiating and maintaining the Southeast Indian Ridge storm track in the Southern Ocean. Background dynamics are found to be primarily governed by the vertical wave activity flux divergences, corresponding to the baroclinic conversion of energy. This term suggests ubiquitous baroclinic growth across the domain but is largely enhanced in the crest of the standing meander. While baroclinic instability remains a nonnegligible contributor, temporal variability in array-averaged EKE is found to be associated with the horizontal wave activity flux terms, corresponding to the barotropic conversion of energy and a mixed instability regime. This variability is event driven and, when decomposed into synoptic storm-track case studies, shown to be analogous to atmospheric downstream development. Anomalously, large local increases in EKE are attributed to an extremely extended meander, which obstructs the typical propagation of these barotropic perturbations. These major events are compared to an atmospheric omega block and hypothesized to significantly increase eddy heat and tracer fluxes and therefore play a sizable role in the eddy-driven arm of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation.

中文摘要

摘要 南大洋地形脊系统下游的高涡动能（EKE）区域类似于大气风暴路径。通常采用三维波活动通量框架进行研究，风暴路径的动力学主要由平均场与涡场之间的能量传递控制。本文利用3年的高分辨率数值模式输出，诊断这些涡-平均场相互作用及引发和维持南大洋东南印度洋脊风暴路径的物理机制。研究发现，背景动力学主要受垂直波活动通量散度控制，对应能量的斜压转换。该术语表明整个区域普遍存在斜压增长，但在驻波弯曲的顶部显著增强。尽管斜压不稳定性仍是一个不可忽视的贡献因素，阵列平均EKE的时间变率与水平波活动通量项相关，对应能量的正压转换及混合不稳定性机制。这种变率由事件驱动，并在分解为天气尺度风暴路径案例研究后，显示出与大气下游发展的相似性。异常情况下，EKE的局部大幅增加归因于极端延伸的弯曲，该弯曲阻碍了这些正压扰动的典型传播。这些重大事件与大气Ω阻塞相类比，推测其显著增强涡热及示踪物通量，从而在南大洋翻转环流的涡驱动分支中发挥重要作用。

6. JGR: Oceans — Redistribution of Sediment and Particulate Mercury Within Upstream Reaches of Galveston Bay in Response to Hurricane Harvey

  • 作者：Zhiyun Du, Courtney K. Harris, Roberta Southwood, Dongxiao Yin, Daoyang Bao, Fei Ye, Timothy M. Dellapenna, Kehui Xu, Z. George Xue
  • 发表日期：2026-07-30
  • DOI：https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jc023581

Abstract

Abstract Extreme storms and flooding can remobilize legacy contaminants stored in the sediment bed; however, event‐scale models that resolve the transport of these materials remain underdeveloped. This study developed a numerical model of contaminated sediment transport during Hurricane Harvey (August 2017), which struck the upstream reaches of Galveston Bay (URGB) and caused severe flooding in response to storm surges, record breaking precipitation, river floods, and prolonged reservoir releases. Previous observations indicate significant sediment and particulate mercury (HgP) redistribution within URGB, but they had limited spatial and temporal coverage, leaving the redistribution timing and patterns uncertain. To address these gaps, a three‐dimensional coupled hydrodynamic and sediment transport model was developed. The model encompassed oceanic surge, peak discharge, and post‐peak flood stages and used river inputs derived from a calibrated hydrological model. The results reveal two distinct sediment transport peaks, linked to asynchronous flood pulses from Buffalo Bayou and the San Jacinto River. In contrast, because the initial sediment bed of Buffalo Bayou had high concentrations of HgP, the peak erosion and transport of HgP coincided with Buffalo Bayou flooding. The post‐peak prolonged reservoir release from Buffalo Bayou caused minimal redistribution of sediment and HgP. Spatially, the model estimates indicate that Buffalo and Patrick Bayous accounted for more than half of the remobilized HgP, while the San Jacinto Estuary may have been the source of one‐third. The methods and findings offer a transferable framework for investigating sediment and contaminant redistribution in other coastal systems impacted by extreme storms or flood‐control operations.

中文摘要

摘要 极端风暴和洪水能够重新悬浮沉积物床中储存的历史污染物；然而，能够解析这些物质输运的事件尺度模型仍发展不足。本研究针对2017年8月飓风哈维期间受污染沉积物的输运开发了一个数值模型，该飓风袭击了加尔维斯顿湾上游河段（URGB），并因风暴潮、创纪录降水、河流洪水及长时间水库泄洪引发了严重洪灾。先前观测表明URGB内沉积物和颗粒态汞（HgP）发生了显著再分布，但观测在时空覆盖上有限，导致再分布的时间和模式存在不确定性。为弥补这些不足，本研究开发了一个三维耦合水动力与沉积物输运模型。该模型涵盖了海洋风暴潮、峰值流量及峰值后洪水阶段，并使用了经校准水文模型得出的河流输入。结果显示存在两个明显的沉积物输运峰值，与布法罗河和圣哈辛托河的非同步洪水脉冲相关。相反，由于布法罗河初始沉积物床中HgP浓度较高，HgP的峰值侵蚀和输运与布法罗河洪水同期发生。峰值后布法罗河长时间水库泄洪导致的沉积物和HgP再分布极小。在空间上，模型估算表明布法罗河和帕特里克河湾贡献了再悬浮HgP的一半以上，而圣哈辛托河口可能贡献了三分之一。本研究的方法和结果为研究受极端风暴或防洪调度影响的其它沿海系统中沉积物和污染物再分布提供了可迁移的框架。

7. JGR: Oceans — Increasing Freshwater Content off the West Coast of India Since 2013

Abstract

Abstract The coastal oceans off India are vital for the exchange of freshwater between the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. In this region, ocean salinity, as a proxy for ocean freshwater content, significantly impacts upper‐ocean stratification and air‐sea interaction and serves as a vital indicator of the regional hydrological cycle driven by monsoon circulation. Using data sets from multiple satellite missions, in situ observations, and reanalysis products, this study investigates salinity changes off the West Coast of India (WCI) from 1993 to 2023. Remarkably, we have detected a regime shift around 2013, where the trend reversed from increasing salinity to a notable freshening. A mixed‐layer salinity budget analysis reveals that this freshening is driven jointly by oceanic advection and surface freshwater flux, with advection playing a major role. These changes are linked to the recent positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events via oceanic and atmospheric processes. pIOD events induce southerly wind anomalies near the WCI, which enhances the northward intrusion of fresh water. Meanwhile, a pIOD operates synergistically with rapid warming in the western equatorial Indian Ocean, intensifying moisture transport toward the WCI and resulting in increased local precipitation. These findings provide new insights into the mechanisms governing coastal salinity changes and their relationship to the regional hydrological cycle under the combined influence of anthropogenic climate warming and natural variability.

中文摘要

摘要 印度近岸海域对于孟加拉湾与阿拉伯海之间的淡水交换至关重要。在该区域，海洋盐度作为海洋淡水含量的代用指标，显著影响上层海洋层结和海气相互作用，并是季风环流驱动的区域水文循环的重要指示器。本研究利用多卫星任务数据集、现场观测及再分析产品，调查了1993年至2023年间印度西海岸（WCI）的盐度变化。值得注意的是，我们检测到约在2013年发生了一次体制转变，盐度趋势由增加逆转为显著淡化。混合层盐度收支分析揭示，这一淡化现象由海洋平流和地表淡水通量共同驱动，其中平流起主要作用。这些变化与近期正印度洋偶极子（pIOD）事件通过海洋和大气过程相关联。pIOD事件在WCI附近诱发南风异常，增强了淡水的向北入侵。同时，pIOD与西赤道印度洋的快速增暖协同作用，加强了向WCI的水汽输送，导致当地降水增加。这些发现为在人为气候变暖和自然变率共同影响下，控制沿海盐度变化的机制及其与区域水文循环的关系提供了新见解。

8. JGR: Oceans — 34°S Atlantic Meridional Freshwater Transport Set by Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheets and Meltwater in the Past 22,000 years

Abstract

Abstract Freshwater transport by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at the southern boundary () has been proposed as an instability indicator of the AMOC. However, its applicability remains controversial. Based on transient model experiment results of the past 22 ka, it is found that whether imports or exports freshwater is governed by the salinity contrast between North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) instead of AMOC strength. With minor freshwater forcing in the Southern Ocean, the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets as well as meltwater flux play key roles in shaping the salinity gradient between these two water masses. We conclude that though is a useful metric to diagnose freshwater budget in the Atlantic, its application in indicating AMOC instability should be applied with caution, particularly under changing background climate conditions. Our study advances our understanding of feedback mechanisms in the Atlantic freshwater budget and AMOC hysteresis behavior in different climates.

中文摘要

摘要 大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）在南边界（）的淡水输运已被提议作为AMOC不稳定性的指示器。然而，其适用性仍存在争议。基于过去22千年瞬态模型实验结果，发现AMOC是输入还是输出淡水，主要由北大西洋深层水（NADW）与南极底层水（AABW）之间的盐度差异控制，而非AMOC强度。在南大洋轻微淡水强迫下，北半球冰盖及融水通量在塑造这两种水团间的盐度梯度中起关键作用。我们得出结论，尽管是诊断大西洋淡水收支的有用指标，但其在指示AMOC不稳定性方面的应用应谨慎，特别是在背景气候条件变化的情况下。我们的研究增进了对不同气候下大西洋淡水收支反馈机制及AMOC滞后行为的理解。

9. JC — Enhanced Teleconnections of Maritime Continent Deforestation on North Pacific Climate During La Niña Conditions

Abstract

Abstract This study investigates how deforestation in the Maritime Continent (MC) modulates extratropical atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific during different phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). By analyzing ensemble idealized deforestation experiments, the research reveals a distinct modulation effect based on the ENSO phase. During El Niño, an elongated subtropical jet stream acts as a waveguide, confining deforestation-induced atmospheric waves, which leads to a flattened Aleutian Low over the North Pacific and reduced impacts on North America. Conversely, during La Niña, the contracted subtropical jet allows these waves to propagate towards higher latitudes, where deforestation in the MC triggering a Pacific-North American (PNA)-like pattern and causing significant warming in North America. Linear Baroclinic Model experiments highlight the sensitivity of the extratropical atmospheric response to MC deforestation, particularly over New Guinea, emphasizing the regional dependency of this sensitivity. These findings suggest that deforestation in the MC may have broader impacts on higher latitudes, particularly during La Niña years or under future global warming scenarios that could favor prolonged or multi-year La Niña conditions.

中文摘要

摘要 本研究探讨了海洋大陆（MC）森林砍伐在厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）不同相位下如何调节北太平洋上空的温带大气环流。通过分析集合理想化森林砍伐实验，研究揭示了基于ENSO相位的显著调节效应。在厄尔尼诺期间，细长的副热带急流充当波导，限制森林砍伐诱发的大气波，导致北太平洋上空的阿留申低压趋于平坦，并减少对北美的影响。相反，在拉尼娜期间，收缩的副热带急流使这些波能够向更高纬度传播，此时海洋大陆的森林砍伐触发类似太平洋-北美（PNA）型的环流模式，并导致北美显著增温。线性斜压模式实验强调了温带大气响应对海洋大陆森林砍伐的敏感性，特别是在新几内亚地区，突出了这种敏感性的区域依赖性。这些发现表明，海洋大陆的森林砍伐可能对更高纬度产生更广泛的影响，尤其是在拉尼娜年份或未来全球变暖情景下可能有利于延长或多年度拉尼娜条件时。

10. GRL — Attribution of the Record‐Breaking June 2024 Eastern Mediterranean Heatwave: Contrasting Roles of Soil Moisture in Anthropogenic Forcing and Natural Variability

Abstract

Abstract In June 2024, the Eastern Mediterranean experienced its hottest June since 1960. However, the relative contributions of anthropogenic forcing and natural variability to this event, and the roles of atmospheric circulation and soil moisture, remain unclear. Using ERA5 reanalysis and HadGEM3‐A‐N216 attribution simulations, we estimate that anthropogenic forcing contributes roughly half of the temperature anomalies, through greenhouse gas‐induced warming and through soil drying that amplifies the heatwave via soil moisture‐temperature feedback. The remaining half attributable to natural variability is dominated (>90%) by an anomalous anticyclone driven by an upstream wave train and associated with positive North Atlantic SST anomalies. Additionally, wetter soil within the natural variability component, caused by above‐normal preceding precipitation, produces a slight cooling that partially offsets the circulation‐induced temperature anomalies. These findings highlight contrasting soil moisture roles during this event, as anomalously wet soil within the natural variability component prevented an even more intense heatwave.

中文摘要

摘要 2024年6月，东地中海地区经历了自1960年以来最炎热的6月。然而，人为强迫与自然变率对这一事件的相对贡献，以及大气环流和土壤湿度所扮演的角色，仍不明确。利用ERA5再分析资料和HadGEM3‐A‐N216归因模拟，我们估算人为强迫贡献了约一半的温度异常，其机制包括温室气体引起的增温以及土壤干燥通过土壤湿度-温度反馈放大热浪效应。剩余一半归因于自然变率，其中异常反气旋主导（>90%），该反气旋由上游波列驱动，并与北大西洋正海表温度异常相关联。此外，自然变率分量中因前期降水偏多导致的湿润土壤产生轻微降温效应，部分抵消了环流引起的温度异常。这些发现突显了此次事件中土壤湿度的对比作用，即自然变率分量中的异常湿润土壤阻止了更为强烈的热浪发生。

11. GRL — Internal Tide Displacements Enhance Surface‐Interior Heat Exchange in the Indonesian Seas

Abstract

Abstract Sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indonesian Seas drives atmospheric deep convection, influencing regional and global climate. Yet, the processes controlling SST in this region remain poorly understood. Using a high‐resolution regional model that explicitly resolves internal tides, we show that tidal displacements lift cold thermocline water into the surface ocean, exposing it to vigorous surface mixing and thus enhancing the surface‐interior heat exchange. The heat exchange facilitated by tides shows strong seasonality, intensifying during monsoons in areas where the mixed layer is deep and the thermocline is shallow. This tidal exposure mechanism augments, with comparable impact, the mixing driven by internal tide breaking in the interior. However, it dominates the tidal impacts for the vertical heat exchange in the upper ocean. This novel pathway for vertical heat exchange must be represented in coarse‐resolution climate models to improve simulations of SST and air–sea interactions in the region.

中文摘要

摘要 印度尼西亚海域的海表温度（SST）驱动着大气深对流，进而影响区域及全球气候。然而，控制该区域海表温度的过程仍知之甚少。利用一个明确解析内潮的高分辨率区域模式，我们展示了潮汐位移将冷水团从温跃层提升至海洋表层，使其暴露于强烈的表层混合中，从而增强表层与内部的热交换。潮汐促进的热交换表现出强烈的季节性，在季风期间，于混合层深厚且温跃层浅薄的区域增强。这种潮汐暴露机制与内潮破碎驱动的内部混合相比，具有相当的影响，但在上层海洋的垂直热交换中占据主导地位。这一新颖的垂直热交换路径必须在粗分辨率气候模式中加以表征，以改进该区域海表温度及海气相互作用的模拟。

12. JAMES — MAUSAM: An Observations‐Focused Assessment of Global AI Weather Prediction Models During the South Asian Monsoon

Abstract

Abstract Past evaluation of artificial intelligence (AI) weather prediction has primarily relied on reanalyses, which can obscure important deficiencies due to prevailing biases in reanalyses themselves. Here, we present MAUSAM (Measuring AI Uncertainty during South Asian Monsoon), an evaluation of seven leading AI‐based prediction systems—FourCastNet, FourCastNet‐SFNO, Pangu‐Weather, GraphCast, Aurora, AIFS, and GenCast—during the South Asian Monsoon, using ground‐based weather stations, rain gauge networks, and geostationary satellite imagery. The AI models demonstrate considerable forecast skill during the monsoon across a broad range of variables, ranging from large‐scale surface temperature and winds to precipitation and cloud cover. In addition, the models generate realistic zonal means and eddy statistics on subseasonal to seasonal timescales, even capturing key aspects of the abrupt Monsoon pause of 2025. However, the models still exhibit systematic errors in finer‐scale features, including the underprediction of extreme precipitation (“tail” events), divergent cyclone tracks, and disagreements in the mesoscale kinetic energy spectra, highlighting avenues for future improvement. A comparison against a combination of in situ and remote sensing observations reveals forecast errors 15%–45% larger than those relative to reanalysis and traditional HRES forecasts, indicating that reanalysis‐centric benchmarks can overstate forecast skill. Of the models assessed, AIFS exhibits the most consistent representation of atmospheric variables, with GraphCast and GenCast also showing strong skill. The analysis presents a framework for systematically evaluating global AI weather models on regional predictions. The results highlight both the promise and current limitations of AI weather prediction and the continued need for observations‐focused evaluation.

中文摘要

摘要 以往对人工智能（AI）天气预报的评估主要依赖再分析资料，这可能因再分析资料本身存在的普遍偏差而掩盖重要缺陷。本文介绍了MAUSAM（南亚季风期间AI不确定性测量），利用地面气象站、雨量计网络和地球静止卫星影像，对七种领先的AI预测系统——FourCastNet、FourCastNet‐SFNO、Pangu‐Weather、GraphCast、Aurora、AIFS和GenCast——在南亚季风期间的表现进行了评估。AI模型在季风期间对多种变量展现出显著的预报技巧，涵盖从大尺度地表温度和风场到降水和云量等范围。此外，这些模型在次季节到季节时间尺度上生成了逼真的纬向平均和涡动统计量，甚至捕捉到了2025年季风突然中断的关键特征。然而，模型在更细尺度特征上仍存在系统性误差，包括对极端降水（“尾部”事件）的低估、气旋路径的分歧以及中尺度动能谱的不一致，这为未来改进指明了方向。与现场观测和遥感观测组合的对比显示，预报误差比相对于再分析和传统HRES预报的误差大15%–45%，表明以再分析为中心的基准可能高估预报技能。在评估的模型中，AIFS对大气变量的表征最为一致，GraphCast和GenCast也表现出较强的技能。本分析为系统评估全球AI天气模式在区域预测中的表现提供了一个框架。结果既凸显了AI天气预报的前景，也揭示了其当前局限性，以及持续进行以观测为重点的评估的必要性。

13. JAMES — Characteristics of a Multi‐Model Ensemble of Mock‐Walker Simulations

  • 作者：Graham L. O’Donnell, Allison A. Wing, Levi G. Silvers, Kevin A. Reed, Peter A. Bogenschutz, Jean‐Pierre Chaboureau, Guy Dagan, Romain Fiévet, Blaž Gasparini, Walter M. Hannah, Keiichi Hashimoto, Peter G. Hill, Gabrielle “Bee” R. Leung, Shuhei Matsugishi, Sebastian Ortega, Romain Roehrig, David M. Romps, Jacob Shpund, Adam B. Sokol, Lorenzo Tomassini, Susan C. van den Heever, Chien‐Ming Wu
  • 发表日期：2026-07-30
  • DOI：https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ms005781

Abstract

Abstract The Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP) phase I provided insights into the tropical radiative‐convective equilibrium state across an unprecedented ensemble of models that includes both those with parameterized and explicit convection. RCEMIP phase II (RCEMIP‐II) introduces mock‐Walker simulations to examine how sea surface temperature (SST) gradients and the forced circulation they theoretically induce interact with the structure of convection and mean climate state. This overview paper presents descriptions of and initial results from 17 numerical models regarding clouds, convective organization, and circulation structure. Results regarding warming the mean SST in the presence of an SST gradient generally mirror those from RCEMIP‐I but a larger range of dynamical circulations, along with additional phenomena, are possible in RCEMIP‐II. Increases in the SST gradient while the mean SST is held constant lead to more convective organization across many models, as measured by a number of organization metrics. Increases in the SST gradient also tend to decrease the frequency of high, thin clouds while increasing the frequency of low clouds, including the possibility of stratocumulus, which were not seen in RCEMIP‐I. RCEMIP‐II also provides an estimate of the influence of a pattern effect, suggesting increased negative climate feedbacks if increases in the SST gradient occur alongside mean warming. However, the SST gradient’s inability to fully constrain the circulation structure allows simulations to show varying importance of self‐aggregation and forced clustering over the warm pool, resulting in extreme variety in the circulation structures and important climate variables in the organized state across the model ensemble.

中文摘要

摘要 辐射-对流平衡模型比较计划（RCEMIP）第一阶段提供了对热带辐射-对流平衡状态的深入见解，该计划涵盖了前所未有的模型集合，包括参数化对流和显式对流模型。RCEMIP第二阶段（RCEMIP-II）引入了模拟沃克环流实验，以研究海表温度（SST）梯度及其理论上诱导的强迫环流如何与对流结构和平均气候状态相互作用。本篇综述文章介绍了17个数值模型在云、对流组织和环流结构方面的描述及初步结果。在存在SST梯度的情况下，平均SST增暖的结果大体上与RCEMIP-I相似，但RCEMIP-II中可能出现更大范围的动力环流及额外现象。在平均SST保持不变时，增加SST梯度会导致许多模型中的对流组织程度增强，这通过多种组织度量指标得以衡量。SST梯度的增加还倾向于减少高空薄云的出现频率，同时增加低云的出现频率，包括可能出现的层积云，而这些在RCEMIP-I中并未观察到。RCEMIP-II还提供了对模式效应影响的估计，表明如果SST梯度的增加与平均增暖同时发生，则可能增强负气候反馈。然而，SST梯度无法完全约束环流结构，使得模拟中自聚集和强迫聚集在暖池上的重要性表现出差异，导致模型集合中有组织状态下的环流结构和重要气候变量出现极大多样性。

14. GRL — Rapid Changes in Southern Ocean Upper‐Water Temperature Linked to Shift of the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies Since the Last Glacial

  • 作者：Tong Wang, Thomas Algeo, Qi Jia, Peng Zhang, Jian Xu, Bingbin Qin, Yihao Hu, Jiakai Wang, Zhifang Xiong, Tiegang Li
  • 发表日期：2026-07-30
  • DOI：https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl119621

Abstract

Abstract The pattern and cause of upper‐water temperature (UWT) variations on millennial timescales in the Southern Ocean (SO) and the mechanism of their interaction with high‐latitude Northern Hemisphere climate remain unclear. Here, we reconstructed millennial‐scale subsurface temperature (subST) records from the Weddell Sea during the Last Glacial and Deglacial, combining them with subST and surface temperature records from the Antarctic and Subantarctic zones. UWTs in the SO underwent rapid changes that have covaried with Antarctic atmospheric temperatures since the Last Glacial. Rapid changes in SO UWTs were controlled by a shift of the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies through modulation of the strength of the upper‐ocean heat reservoir and upwelling of Circumpolar Deep Water. In addition to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the upper SO heat reservoir also played an important role in the “bipolar thermal seesaw.” Our study highlights the significance of the SO in abrupt climate changes and their interhemispheric teleconnections.

中文摘要

摘要 南大洋（SO）上层水温（UWT）在千年时间尺度上的变化模式及其成因，以及其与北半球高纬度气候相互作用的机制仍不清楚。本文重建了末次冰期和冰消期期间威德尔海千年尺度的次表层温度（subST）记录，并将其与南极和亚南极地区的次表层温度及海表温度记录相结合。自末次冰期以来，南大洋上层水温经历了与南极大气温度协同变化的快速波动。南大洋上层水温的快速变化受南半球西风带迁移的控制，通过调节上层海洋热储量强度和绕极深层水上涌实现。除大西洋经向翻转环流外，南大洋上层热储层在“两极热跷跷板”现象中也发挥了重要作用。本研究强调了南大洋在气候突变及其半球间遥相关中的重要性。

15. GRL — Multidecadal Changes in ENSO Drive a Substantial Decline in West Antarctic Sea Ice Predictability

Abstract

Abstract ENSO teleconnections are a key source of Antarctic sea‐ice predictability, particularly in the Antarctic Dipole (ADP) region, but whether this predictability remains stable under the recent transition toward Central Pacific (CP) El Niño is unclear. Here, using a Markov model, we reveal an 83% decrease in sea ice concentration (SIC) predictability, measured by the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), during austral winter and spring since 2002. We show that this decline is linked to a weakened ENSO–Antarctic teleconnection, in which the CP El Niño‐triggered Rossby wave train shifts northward away from the Antarctic sea‐ice zone and toward the open ocean. This northward shift reduces the wave train’s influence on Antarctic sea ice, dampens sea‐ice persistence, lowers its signal‐to‐noise ratio, and consequently limits predictability. Our results suggest that ENSO–Antarctic teleconnections may provide a useful benchmark for evaluating and improving Antarctic sea‐ice prediction models.

中文摘要

摘要 ENSO遥相关是南极海冰可预测性的关键来源，尤其在南极偶极子（ADP）区域，但在近期向中太平洋（CP）厄尔尼诺转变的背景下，这种可预测性是否保持稳定尚不清楚。本文利用马尔可夫模型揭示，自2002年以来，南极冬季和春季的海冰浓度（SIC）可预测性（以异常相关系数ACC衡量）下降了83%。我们表明，这一下降与ENSO-南极遥相关的减弱有关，其中CP厄尔尼诺触发的罗斯贝波列向北偏移，远离南极海冰区而朝向开阔海洋。这种北移减弱了波列对南极海冰的影响，抑制了海冰的持续性，降低了其信噪比，从而限制了可预测性。我们的结果表明，ENSO-南极遥相关可为评估和改进南极海冰预测模型提供有用的基准。

16. GRL — Atmospheric Noise Forcing Increases Multiyear El Niño Events

Abstract

Abstract Despite their pronounced climate impacts, the physical processes that control the frequency of multiyear El Niño events remain incompletely understood. Using an Interactive Ensemble (IE) coupling strategy, we find that atmospheric noise forcing plays an important role in modulating the frequency of multiyear El Niño events. When thermocline‐related stochastic forcing is stronger, equatorial warm‐water volume is less effectively discharged after the first El Niño peak, increasing the likelihood that positive recharge persists into the following year. Sensitivity experiments with the Stochastic Recharge Oscillator model show that a larger diagnosed (the amplitude of wind‐stress–driven atmospheric noise forcing on thermocline‐depth anomalies) is systematically associated with a higher frequency of multiyear El Niño events. These results reveal a previously underrecognized pathway through which stochastic atmospheric variability modulates the persistence of El Niño events.

中文摘要

摘要 尽管多年期厄尔尼诺事件具有显著的气候影响，但控制其发生频率的物理过程仍未完全明了。通过采用交互式集合（IE）耦合策略，我们发现大气噪声强迫在调节多年期厄尔尼诺事件频率中扮演重要角色。当与温跃层相关的随机强迫增强时，首次厄尔尼诺峰值后赤道暖水体积的排放效率降低，从而增加了正补给持续至次年的可能性。基于随机补给振荡器模型的敏感性实验表明，较大的诊断值（风应力驱动的大气噪声强迫对温跃层深度异常振幅的影响）系统性地与多年期厄尔尼诺事件频率的增高相关联。这些结果揭示了一条先前未被充分认识的路径，即随机大气变率如何调节厄尔尼诺事件的持续性。

边缘相关条目

命中物理海洋学关键词，但同时涉及其他学科领域，仅供参考。

  • JC — Seasonal chlorophyll-a prediction in the tropical Pacific with a global climate model incorporating marine biogeochemistry (SINTEX-F2bio)（DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0533.1）
    • 命中: ENSO
    • 排除: fisheries
  • GRL — Rapid Morphological Changes in the Intertidal Zone of the Ganges‐Brahmaputra Delta Revealed by SWOT Altimetry Mission（DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl122592）
    • 命中: ocean dynamics
    • 排除: sediment

待人工核实

元数据缺失（摘要 / DOI / 作者），需人工核查后再纳入。

  • Ocean Modelling — Advancing absolute regional sea level rise estimation: Methodological improvements using satellite altimetry and filtering techniques in the Baltic Sea
    • 缺失项: 摘要缺失或过短
    • 链接: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2026.102804
  • JGR: Oceans — Issue Information
    • 缺失项: 摘要缺失或过短; 作者列表缺失
    • 链接: https://doi.org/10.1029/jgrc.70248