本期覆盖 2026-09-11 至 2026-09-18，共收录高置信度文章 22 篇，边缘相关 0 篇，待人工核实 0 篇。

本周亮点

亮点 1：Observational Evidence for Accelerated Warming and Salinification Propagating Into the Deep Mediterranean

期刊：GRL ｜ DOI：https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl124518

English summary

This study provides observational evidence that warming and salinification in the Mediterranean Sea are accelerating, not just increasing linearly. Using a comprehensive in situ dataset from 1950 to 2025, the authors show that the upper 1000–2000 m have experienced accelerating temperature and salinity increases, with rates reaching up to 0.3°C per decade squared. This challenges the traditional view of gradual ocean response and highlights the Mediterranean as a sentinel for rapid climate change impacts in semi-enclosed basins.

中文解读

该研究提供了观测证据，表明地中海变暖和盐化正在加速，而非线性增长。利用1950-2025年的多平台现场数据集，作者发现上层1000-2000米的温度和盐度增加在加速，加速度高达每十年0.3°C。这挑战了海洋响应渐变的传统观点，并突显地中海作为半封闭海盆对气候变化快速响应的指示器。

亮点 2：A Physically Interpretable Spatial PDE Framework for El Niño Supports a Near-Critical Response-Mode Interpretation

期刊：JC ｜ DOI：https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-26-0259.1

English summary

This paper presents a physically interpretable spatial partial differential equation (PDE) framework for El Niño, extending the recharge oscillator to include spatial structure while retaining identifiable operators. The model supports a near-critical response-mode interpretation of ENSO, bridging the gap between simple conceptual models and complex coupled simulations. This methodological advance enhances our understanding of ENSO dynamics and may improve predictability.

中文解读

该论文提出了一个物理可解释的空间偏微分方程框架，将充电振荡器扩展为包含空间结构，同时保留可识别的算子。该模型支持ENSO的近临界响应模态解释，弥合了简单概念模型与复杂耦合模拟之间的差距。这一方法学进展增进了对ENSO动力学的理解，并可能提高可预测性。

文章详览

1. JPO — Wave Attenuation by Sea Ice in the Marginal Ice Zone: Estimation and Rollover Behavior

  • 作者：Zhaohui Cheng, Øyvind Breivik, Jean Rabault, Sukun Cheng, Josh Kousal, Takehiko Nose, Mario Hoppmann, Takuji Waseda, Tsubasa Kodaira, Lichuan Wu
  • 发表日期：2026-09-16
  • DOI：https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-25-0172.1

Abstract

Abstract Ocean surface waves propagating into the marginal ice zone influence the extent and properties of sea ice through wave–ice interactions. However, the attenuation of wave energy by sea ice remains poorly represented in wave models used for climate projections and operational forecasting, and no universally applicable parametric formulation has yet been established. Here, we analyze four in situ datasets collected by wave buoys deployed around Svalbard between 2020 and 2023 to estimate spectral wave attenuation coefficients using buoy pairs. All datasets exhibit a power-law frequency dependence in the median attenuation coefficient profiles with exponents n = 1.32 ∼ 2.57. Deviations from this trend occur primarily at high frequencies, where the attenuation flattens or decreases—a phenomenon known as the “rollover”. Instrument noise can contribute to such spurious rollover and bias attenuation estimates; after applying noise control, our results suggest that neglecting local wind energy input may also contribute to it. The rollover tends to occur within the frequency range corresponding to spectral wave ages c / U 10 ≲ 1.2 (where c is the wave phase speed and U 10 is the wind speed at 10 m above the sea surface), and is more pronounced under relatively strong winds. Removing wind energy input prior to estimating attenuation is found to substantially reduce the rollover signal. These results suggest that, to mitigate spurious rollover in attenuation coefficient estimates, it is advisable to filter instrument noise and account for the wind input source term prior to attenuation estimation.

中文摘要

摘要 传播进入边缘冰区的海洋表面波通过波–冰相互作用影响海冰的范围与性质。然而，在用于气候预估和业务化预报的波浪模式中，海冰对波能的衰减仍表征不足，且尚未建立普遍适用的参数化公式。本文分析了2020年至2023年间在Svalbard周边布放的波浪浮标所采集的四组现场数据集，利用浮标对估算谱波浪衰减系数。所有数据集的中值衰减系数剖面均呈现幂律频率依赖关系，指数为n = 1.32 ∼ 2.57。偏离该趋势的现象主要出现在高频段，此处衰减趋于平缓或减小——即所谓“翻转”现象。仪器噪声可能导致此类虚假翻转并使衰减估算产生偏差；在实施噪声控制后，我们的结果表明，忽略局地风能输入也可能导致该现象。翻转倾向于出现在对应谱波龄c / U₁₀ ≲ 1.2的频率范围内（其中c为波相速度，U₁₀为海面以上10 m高度处的风速），且在相对强风条件下更为显著。研究发现，在估算衰减之前去除风能输入可大幅减弱翻转信号。上述结果表明，为减轻衰减系数估算中的虚假翻转，宜在衰减估算之前滤除仪器噪声并考虑风输入源项。

2. JPO — Interactions of Typhoon-Generated Near-Inertial Waves and Tidal Processes with a Mesoscale Warm Eddy during Typhoon Kalmaegi (2014)

Abstract

Abstract Using a high-resolution MITgcm simulation, together with mooring observations, satellite sea level anomaly (SLA) data, and tidal harmonic analysis, this study examines the interactions of typhoon-generated near-inertial waves and tidal processes with a mesoscale warm eddy in the northern South China Sea during Typhoon Kalmaegi (2014). Three sensitivity experiments are conducted to distinguish the roles of wind and tidal forcing. The results show that typhoon passage substantially weakens the target warm eddy, as evidenced by reduced sea surface height, eddy amplitude, effective radius, and low-frequency eddy kinetic energy. This weakening reflects a two-stage wind-forced adjustment: direct wind work dominates the initial typhoon-stage disturbance, whereas post-storm NIW–low-frequency kinetic energy exchange becomes more pronounced and sustains adjustment of the weakened warm eddy. In addition, the post-typhoon recovery of sea surface height is markedly slower within the eddy than in the surrounding waters, indicating that the anticyclonic eddy background prolongs the local adjustment time scale. In contrast, tidal-related processes exert a positive influence during the recovery stage: after the storm, the inclusion of tidal forcing is associated with a more favorable low-frequency APE tendency and a rebound of sea surface height within the warm eddy. Meanwhile, the eddy suppresses the surface expression of tide-induced periodic sea surface height variability. These results demonstrate a pronounced nonlinear coupling among typhoon-forced NIWs, tidal processes, and mesoscale eddies, and highlight their joint role in regulating post-typhoon energy redistribution and eddy adjustment in the northern South China Sea.

中文摘要

摘要：本研究利用高分辨率MITgcm模拟，结合锚系观测、卫星海平面异常（SLA）资料以及潮汐调和分析，考察了2014年台风Kalmaegi期间南海北部台风生成的近惯性波与潮汐过程同中尺度暖涡的相互作用。研究开展了三组敏感性试验，以区分风强迫与潮汐强迫的作用。结果表明，台风过境显著削弱了目标暖涡，表现为海表面高度、涡旋振幅、有效半径以及低频涡动能均减小。这种削弱反映了一个两阶段的风强迫调整过程：直接风做功在台风阶段的初始扰动中占主导地位，而风暴后的近惯性波—低频动能交换变得更加显著，并维持对已削弱暖涡的调整。此外，台风后海表面高度在涡旋内部的恢复明显慢于周围海域，表明反气旋涡背景延长了局地调整时间尺度。相比之下，潮汐相关过程在恢复阶段发挥积极作用：风暴之后，引入潮汐强迫与更有利的低频有效位能趋势以及暖涡内海表面高度的回升相联系。同时，涡旋抑制了潮致周期性海表面高度变化的海表表现。这些结果表明，台风强迫的近惯性波、潮汐过程与中尺度涡之间存在显著的非线性耦合，并凸显了它们在调控南海北部台风后能量再分配和涡旋调整中的共同作用。

3. JPO — Causes of the westward Equatorial Intermediate Currents in the eastern Pacific Ocean

Abstract

Abstract It has been shown that the Equatorial Intermediate Currents (EICs) in the Pacific Ocean, which is a time-mean zonal current along the equator at intermediate depth (from 500 m to at least 2000 m), have a nearly basin-wide westward flow, which is quite different from the Atlantic counterpart. Slowly varying vertically stacked eastward and westward currents called Equatorial Deep Jets (EDJs) are also observed along the equator. Moreover, intra-seasonal waves have also been identified near the equator at 1000 m depth with significant amplitude in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Although these deep intra-seasonal waves are considered as an energy source for the EICs and EDJs, the relationship among them in the Pacific Ocean remains an open question. In this study, we conduct an idealized numerical simulation, which reproduces basic features of the EICs, EDJs, and deep intra-seasonal Yanai waves in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The momentum budget indicates that the Yanai waves provide westward momentum to the background field (sum of the EICs and EDJs) in the eastern part of the basin. Specifically, the Yanai waves strengthen the westward background flow while the Yanai waves have little impact on the eastward background flow. This is attributed to the fact that the shear of the background zonal flows, the sum of the EICs and EDJs, is stronger (weaker) in the case of the westward (eastward) EDJs. Consequently, the acceleration by the Yanai waves does not cancel out in the time-mean field, providing the westward momentum to the time-mean EICs.

中文摘要

摘要：已有研究表明，太平洋赤道中层流（Equatorial Intermediate Currents, EICs）——即沿赤道中层深度（500 m至至少2000 m）的时间平均纬向流——具有几乎覆盖整个海盆的西向流动，这与大西洋的情况截然不同。沿赤道还观测到缓慢变化的垂向叠置东向和西向流，称为赤道深潜流（Equatorial Deep Jets, EDJs）。此外，在赤道附近1000 m深度还识别出季节内波动，其在东太平洋具有显著振幅。尽管这些深层季节内波动被认为是EICs和EDJs的能量来源，但它们在太平洋中的相互关系仍是一个未解问题。本研究开展了理想化数值模拟，再现了东太平洋EICs、EDJs和深层季节内Yanai波的基本特征。动量收支表明，Yanai波在海盆东部向背景场（EICs与EDJs之和）提供西向动量。具体而言，Yanai波增强了西向背景流，而对东向背景流影响甚微。这归因于以下事实：当EDJs为西向（东向）时，背景纬向流（即EICs与EDJs之和）的切变较强（较弱）。因此，Yanai波的加速作用在时间平均场中不会相互抵消，从而向时间平均的EICs提供西向动量。

4. JPO — Scale-dependent budget and vertical pathway of kinetic energy in the Northwest Pacific

Abstract

Abstract The oceanic energy budget across mesoscale and submesoscale plays a crucial role in regulating large-scale ocean circulation and air-sea interactions. Although submesoscale baroclinic instability is known to inject energy near the surface and fuel an inverse energy cascade toward mesoscale eddies, the vertical pathway through which this energy is redistributed remains poorly understood. Using a submesoscale-permitting ocean general circulation model (OGCM) and a coarse-graining approach, we examine the spatial structure and scale dependence of the three-dimensional kinetic energy (KE) budget in the Northwest Pacific, where energetic submeso/mesoscale motions exist. At submesoscales (~10 km), the vertical pressure work (PW) drives a substantial downward transport of KE from the mixed layer into the ocean interior, with a magnitude comparable to the baroclinic instability in enhancing submesoscale motions beneath the mixed layer. In the meanwhile, KE is gradually transferred upscale, except near intense surface fronts where forward energy cascade occurs. As the horizontal scale increases to mesoscale (~100 km), a considerable amount of KE converted via baroclinic instability is transferred upscale via inverse energy cascade; while the vertical PW continues to facilitate a downward energy transport toward greater depth, consistent with the barotropization tendency of mesoscale eddies. The results of this study reveal a tight coupling between the cross-scale energy cascade and vertical energy redistribution. Particularly, as submesoscale energy cascades to larger scales, it also penetrates deeper through PW, ultimately feeding interior mesoscale motions while reducing energy dissipation near the surface. This mechanism highlights the previously underappreciated role of PW in the evolution of the three-dimensional structure of submesoscale eddies.

中文摘要

摘要 跨中尺度和亚中尺度的海洋能量收支在调控大尺度海洋环流和海气相互作用中起着至关重要的作用。尽管已知亚中尺度斜压不稳定会在近表层注入能量，并驱动向中尺度涡旋的逆能量级串，但能量通过何种垂直路径进行再分配仍知之甚少。本文利用允许亚中尺度的海洋环流模式（OGCM）和粗粒化方法，研究了西北太平洋三维动能（KE）收支的空间结构和尺度依赖性，该区域存在活跃的亚中尺度/中尺度运动。在亚中尺度（约10 km），垂直压力做功（PW）驱动动能从混合层向海洋内部的大量向下输运，其量级与斜压不稳定在增强混合层以下亚中尺度运动方面的作用相当。与此同时，动能逐渐向更大尺度转移，但在强表层锋面附近除外，那里发生正向能量级串。当水平尺度增大至中尺度（约100 km）时，相当一部分通过斜压不稳定转换的动能经由逆能量级串向更大尺度转移；而垂直压力做功继续促进能量向更深处的向下输运，这与中尺度涡旋的正压化趋势一致。本研究结果揭示了跨尺度能量级串与垂直能量再分配之间的紧密耦合。特别地，当亚中尺度能量级串至更大尺度时，它也通过压力做功向更深层渗透，最终为海洋内部的中尺度运动提供能量，同时减少近表层的能量耗散。这一机制凸显了压力做功在亚中尺度涡旋三维结构演变中此前被低估的作用。

5. JPO — Statistical Distributions of Eddy-Driven Cross-Frontal Exchange Inferred From Mooring Time Series

Abstract

Abstract Eddy-driven exchange across shelfbreak fronts regulates productive ecosystems by contributing to coastal watermass budgets of heat, salt, carbon, and nutrients. Yet, the magnitude and variability of coastal-open ocean exchange across these fronts remain poorly constrained as cross-shelfbreak eddy-fluxes are intermittent, strongly non-geostrophic, and rarely resolved by observations. Here, we provide evidence that time series from moorings capture the statistical distribution of eddy-driven cross-frontal exchange across a topographically trapped shelfbreak frontal system and provide objective thresholds to distinguish significant eddy-flux events from underlying background variability. We apply this approach to the Middle Atlantic Bight shelfbreak front along the US East Coast, where a comprehensive observational record enables robust validation. Analysis of eddy-covariance salt 〈 v‘S’ 〉 and heat 〈 v‘T’ 〉 fluxes across the front reveals previously un-resolved statistical properties of eddy-driven cross-frontal exchange. Eddy-flux distributions have similar shapes everywhere across the frontal zone, and their asymmetry generates the diffusive mean effect of eddies, which weaken cross-frontal gradients. Rare extreme events are statistically independent and contribute substantially to the mean flux. The mooring-based multi-year mean flux across the inshore edge of the front closes the mean coastal watermass budget and aligns with independent residual estimates. Despite robust statistics, weak spatio-temporal correlation of eddy-covariance fluxes reflect their non-geostrophic dynamics and limit attribution of individual flux events to specific frontal processes. The presented results make mooring-observed eddy-covariance flux statistics a robust framework for long-term monitoring, regional intercomparison, and model validation of eddy-driven exchange across topographically trapped frontal systems.

中文摘要

摘要 涡旋驱动的跨陆架坡折锋交换通过影响近岸水团的热量、盐度、碳和营养盐收支，调控着高生产力生态系统。然而，由于跨陆架坡折涡旋通量具有间歇性、强非地转特征且极少被观测所分辨，这些锋面处近岸-开阔大洋交换的量级与变率仍缺乏充分约束。本文提供证据表明，锚系观测时间序列能够捕捉地形捕获型陆架坡折锋系统涡旋驱动跨锋交换的统计分布，并提供客观阈值以区分显著涡旋通量事件与背景变率。我们将该方法应用于美国东海岸的中大西洋湾陆架坡折锋，该区域拥有全面的观测记录，可实现稳健验证。对跨锋涡旋协方差盐通量〈v’S’〉和热通量〈v’T’〉的分析揭示了涡旋驱动跨锋交换此前未被分辨的统计特性。涡旋通量分布在锋区各处具有相似的形状，其不对称性产生了涡旋的扩散平均效应，从而削弱跨锋梯度。罕见的极端事件在统计上相互独立，并对平均通量有实质性贡献。基于锚系观测的锋面近岸边缘多年平均通量闭合了近岸水团平均收支，并与独立的残余估计相一致。尽管统计结果稳健，涡旋协方差通量的弱时空相关性反映了其非地转动力学特征，并限制了个别通量事件与特定锋面过程的归因。本文结果表明，锚系观测的涡旋协方差通量统计为地形捕获型锋系统涡旋驱动交换的长期监测、区域间比较和模式验证提供了稳健框架。

6. JC — A Physically Interpretable Spatial PDE Framework for El Niño Supports a Near-Critical Response-Mode Interpretation

Abstract

Abstract The recharge oscillator (RO) captures the core ENSO feedback loop in two physically transparent equations but collapses the basin into lumped variables, whereas coupled models of intermediate and higher complexity resolve spatial structure at the cost of less direct operator-level attribution. Here we recast the RO as a spatially explicit strip model: a minimal three-field linear partial differential equation (PDE) framework, evolved directly from RO dynamics, that retains identifiable states and operators (eastern-Pacific SST, western recharge memory, and eastern thermocline adjustment) while resolving basin-scale spatial modes. The framework remains physically interpretable and analytically tractable. Global stability analysis reveals an intrinsic oscillatory branch, a Hopf-type onset of oscillatory instability, and parameter-selective access to oscillations, mainly governed by western memory diffusion and damping. Resolvent analysis, stochastic simulations, and matched model-observation diagnostics yield consistent interannual frequencies and coherent basin-scale modes. A rolling observation-derived linear system built from the same observables remains predominantly stable, indicating that, within this linear, seasonally averaged operator setting, historical ENSO is better interpreted as a near-critical response mode than as a persistent intrinsic global instability. The framework can provide an interpretable basis for ENSO diagnosis, prediction, and physics-informed learning.

中文摘要

摘要 充放电振子（RO）以两个物理上透明的方程刻画了ENSO核心反馈回路，但将海盆简化为集总变量；而中等及更高复杂度的耦合模式虽能解析空间结构，却以牺牲直接的算子层面归因为代价。本文将RO重构为空间显式的条带模式：一个由RO动力学直接演化而来的最小三场线性偏微分方程（PDE）框架，在解析海盆尺度空间模态的同时，保留了可识别的状态与算子（东太平洋SST、西太平洋充放电记忆和东太平洋温跃层调整）。该框架保持物理可解释性和解析可处理性。全局稳定性分析揭示了一个内禀振荡分支、振荡不稳定性的Hopf型起始，以及参数选择性的振荡可达性，其主要受西太平洋记忆扩散和阻尼控制。预解分析、随机模拟和匹配的模式-观测诊断给出一致的年际频率和相干的海盆尺度模态。由相同可观测量构建的滚动观测导出线性系统仍以稳定为主，表明在该线性、季节平均的算子设定下，历史ENSO更适合被解释为一种近临界响应模态，而非持续的内禀全局不稳定。该框架可为ENSO诊断、预测和物理信息学习提供可解释的基础。

7. JC — Enhancing Seasonal Predictability of Haihe River Basin Summer Precipitation Through ENSO and North Pacific–Atlantic Precursors

  • 作者：Xiangmin Li, Taihua Wang, Xuyao Tang, Yuting Yang, Wenxia Zhang, Yingshuang Ma, Guobao Zhang, Xiangrui Lin, Deliang Chen, Dawen Yang
  • 发表日期：2026-09-15
  • DOI：https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0575.1

Abstract

Abstract Escalating flood risks highlight the need for a better understanding of the predictability of Haihe River Basin summer precipitation (HRBSP). Here, we investigate the distinct roles of ENSO-related and ENSO-independent sea surface temperature (SST) precursors in modulating interannual HRBSP variability. Using Extended Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis, we extract two modes of ENSO evolution, with the developing mode emerging as the dominant ENSO-related driver. After removing ENSO-related signals, we reveal a pronounced interdecadal shift in the ENSO-independent SST precursors around the early 2000s. Before 2003, HRBSP variability was associated with opposite-signed SST anomalies between the North Pacific and North Atlantic during the preceding autumn, whereas after 2003 it was primarily linked to a winter meridional SST gradient over the North Pacific. These two precursors exhibit distinct cross-seasonal propagation but are associated with similar summer Rossby wave trains affecting East Asia. The decadal shift of precursors is associated with weakened winter persistence of North Atlantic anomalies and altered North Pacific evolution tied to a phase transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Building on these insights, we develop an empirical prediction model for interannual HRBSP variability using only autumn–winter SST observations. In the context of a retrospectively identified regime framework, this empirical model achieves higher prediction skill than dynamical model forecasts issued over the same period and successfully predicted the extremely wet HRBSP anomaly in 2025. These findings provide new mechanistic understanding of HRBSP variability and highlight the potential of physically based SST precursors for improving seasonal precipitation prediction.

中文摘要

摘要 日益加剧的洪水风险凸显了深入理解海河流域夏季降水（HRBSP）可预测性的必要性。本文研究了与ENSO相关及与ENSO无关的海表温度（SST）前兆因子在调制HRBSP年际变率中的不同作用。利用扩展经验正交函数分析，我们提取了ENSO演变的两个模态，其中发展模态成为与ENSO相关的主导驱动因子。在去除与ENSO相关的信号后，我们揭示了与ENSO无关的SST前兆因子在2000年代初前后发生了显著的年代际转变。2003年之前，HRBSP变率与前一年秋季北太平洋和北大西洋之间的反号SST异常相关，而2003年之后则主要与北太平洋冬季经向SST梯度相联系。这两种前兆因子表现出不同的跨季节传播特征，但均与影响东亚的相似夏季罗斯贝波列相关联。前兆因子的年代际转变与北大西洋异常冬季持续性减弱以及北太平洋演变改变有关，后者与太平洋年代际振荡的位相转换相联系。基于这些认识，我们仅利用秋冬季SST观测资料建立了一个HRBSP年际变率的经验预测模型。在回溯识别的模态框架下，该经验模型的预测技巧高于同期发布的动力模式预报，并成功预测了2025年HRBSP的极端偏湿异常。这些发现为HRBSP变率提供了新的机制性认识，并凸显了基于物理机制的SST前兆因子在改进季节降水预测方面的潜力。

8. JC — Atlantic meridional overturning circulation weakening in CMIP6: Labrador Sea surface fluxes and salt transport feedback

Abstract

Abstract Future Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) weakening remains a robust but poorly understood projection, with substantial uncertainty in the underlying regional mechanisms and inter-model spread. This study analyzes 30 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to identify regional surface-forcing sensitivities associated with the inter-model spread of AMOC weakening. Multi-model analysis shows that inter-model differences in AMOC weakening are tightly linked to net surface heat flux (NSHF), SST, and salinity anomalies in the Labrador Sea, reflecting coupled ocean–atmosphere adjustment in the subpolar North Atlantic. While observations suggest the Labrador Sea contributes modestly to the mean overturning, these results indicate it is a region of disproportionate sensitivity in CMIP6 models. To assess this sensitivity, we conduct idealized coupled experiments using regional atmospheric nudging. Heat flux forcing over the Labrador Sea increases downward NSHF by ~60 W m −2 and weakens the AMOC by 7–9 Sv, accompanied by sustained subpolar freshening through reduced northward salt transport. When comparable forcing is applied to the Irminger–Greenland Seas, the simulated AMOC response is smaller despite similar heat uptake. These results indicate that salt transport feedback varies with the location of surface forcing and that the pronounced Labrador Sea sensitivity in CMIP6 models can contribute to the inter-model spread of future AMOC projections.

中文摘要

摘要 未来大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）减弱仍是一个稳健但认识不足的预估结果，其 underlying 区域机制及模式间差异存在很大不确定性。本研究分析了30个耦合模式比较计划第六阶段（CMIP6）模式，以识别与AMOC减弱模式间差异相关的区域表面强迫敏感性。多模式分析表明，AMOC减弱的模式间差异与拉布拉多海的净表面热通量（NSHF）、海表温度（SST）和盐度异常密切相关，反映了副极地北大西洋的海洋-大气耦合调整。尽管观测表明拉布拉多海对平均翻转环流的贡献适中，但这些结果表明，在CMIP6模式中它是一个敏感性过高的区域。为评估这一敏感性，我们利用区域大气 nudging 开展了理想化耦合试验。拉布拉多海的热通量强迫使向下NSHF增加约60 W m⁻²，并使AMOC减弱7–9 Sv，同时通过减少向北盐输送导致副极地持续淡化。当对Irminger-格陵兰海施加可比强迫时，尽管热吸收相似，模拟的AMOC响应却较小。这些结果表明，盐输送反馈随表面强迫位置而变化，且CMIP6模式中显著的拉布拉多海敏感性可对未来AMOC预估的模式间差异有所贡献。

9. JC — Sea surface temperature-forced and atmospheric internal variability of tropical cyclone genesis latitude in the northwest Pacific

Abstract

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis latitude in the northwest Pacific (NWP) exhibits strong year-to-year variations. Combining observations with a 100-member ensemble of TC-permitting atmospheric model simulations, we examine the oceanic forcing and atmospheric internal variability in these variations. Results show that sea surface temperature (SST)-forced variability, largely modulated by the tripolar pattern of Pacific SST variability, explains 53.3% of the total variance in the NWP TC genesis latitude. Atmospheric internal variability, indicated by the fluctuations in the subtropical precipitation over the NWP, contributes an additional portion to the year-to-year variations. Leveraging the identified indicators for the SST-forced and atmospheric internal variability, an empirical reconstruction model is developed, which skillfully reproduces the TC genesis latitude in the NWP, as demonstrated by the statistically significant correlations in both cross-validated reforecast for 1981–2010 and independent forecast for 2011–2024. Further decomposition of seasonal-mean TC genesis latitude reveals that while changes in monthly-mean genesis latitude dominate the total variations, shifts in TC seasonality play a crucial role during years with extreme northward/southward displacements. These findings highlight the synergetic influence of oceanic forcing and atmospheric internal variability on TC genesis latitude and provide a foundation for improving seasonal TC activity predictions.

中文摘要

摘要 西北太平洋热带气旋生成纬度存在显著的年际变化。结合观测资料与包含100个成员的热带气旋可解析大气模式集合模拟，我们考察了这些变化中的海洋强迫与大气内部变率。结果表明，由太平洋海表温度三极型变率模态主导调控的海表温度强迫变率解释了西北太平洋热带气旋生成纬度总方差的53.3%。以西北太平洋副热带降水波动为表征的大气内部变率对年际变化亦有额外贡献。基于所识别的海表温度强迫与大气内部变率指标，构建了一个经验重建模型，该模型能够较好地再现西北太平洋热带气旋生成纬度，1981—2010年交叉验证回报和2011—2024年独立预报中均表现出统计显著的相关性。对季节平均热带气旋生成纬度的进一步分解揭示，尽管月平均生成纬度的变化主导了总变率，但在极端北偏/南偏年份，热带气旋季节性的偏移起着关键作用。这些发现凸显了海洋强迫与大气内部变率对热带气旋生成纬度的协同影响，并为改进季节尺度热带气旋活动预测提供了基础。

10. JC — Temperature Change in Mode Water Source Regions

Abstract

Abstract Mode waters, characterized by vertically uniform temperature and salinity beneath the mixed layer, play a crucial role in ventilating anthropogenic heat and carbon into the ocean interior. However, the global comparison of their temperature evolution and governing processes under a global closed-budget framework remains to become more systematically undertaken, as required to make mechanistic progress. Using two global ocean datasets OCCA2 and IAPv4, we examine temperature changes in 11 mode waters from 1980 to 2022. Most exhibit statistically significant warming, strongest in North Pacific Central Mode Water (NP-CMW) and North Atlantic Subtropical Mode Water (NA-STMW), where the datasets agree closely. A hemispheric contrast emerges: decadal (interannual) variability dominates in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere,. Mode water temperature is regulated by both advective ocean heat transport convergence (adiabatic) and water-mass transformation (diabatic) associated with air–sea heat fluxes and convective mixing. The closed heat budget in OCCA2 reveals that the diabatic term controls variability in NA-STMW, North Pacific Eastern Subtropical Mode Water (NP-ESTMW), and South Atlantic Subtropical Mode Water (SA-STMW), with advection compensating. Conversely, advection dominates in North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water (NP-STMW), South Pacific Eastern Subtropical Mode Water (SP-ESTMW), and Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW). In North Atlantic Madeira Mode Water (NA-MMW), North Atlantic Subpolar Mode Water (NA-SPMW), NP-CMW, and Southern Pacific Western Subtropical Mode Water (SP-WSTMW), both processes contribute comparably. Across all eleven mode waters, we find that the degree of compensation between adiabatic and diabatic processes and which process dominates temperature variability are timescale-dependent, highlighting the interplay between mixed-layer transformation and interior ocean heat transport on different time scales.

中文摘要

摘要 模态水以混合层之下温度和盐度垂直均匀为特征，在将人为热量和碳输运至海洋内部的过程中发挥着关键的通风作用。然而，在全球闭合收支框架下对其温度演变及主导过程的全球性比较，仍有待更为系统地开展，这也是取得机制性进展所必需的。利用两套全球海洋数据集OCCA2和IAPv4，我们考察了1980年至2022年间11种模态水的温度变化。大多数模态水表现出统计上显著的增暖，其中以北太平洋中央模态水（NP-CMW）和北大西洋副热带模态水（NA-STMW）最为显著，且两套数据集在这些区域高度一致。一种半球间的对比随之显现：年代际（年际）变率在北半球（南半球）占主导地位。模态水温度受平流海洋热输运辐合（绝热过程）和与海气热通量及对流混合相关的水团变性（非绝热过程）共同调控。OCCA2中的闭合热量收支揭示，非绝热项控制着NA-STMW、北太平洋东部副热带模态水（NP-ESTMW）和南大西洋副热带模态水（SA-STMW）的变率，而平流项则起补偿作用。相反，平流项在北太平洋副热带模态水（NP-STMW）、南太平洋东部副热带模态水（SP-ESTMW）和亚南极模态水（SAMW）中占主导地位。在北大西洋马德拉模态水（NA-MMW）、北大西洋副极地模态水（NA-SPMW）、NP-CMW和南太平洋西部副热带模态水（SP-WSTMW）中，两种过程的贡献相当。在全部十一种模态水中，我们发现绝热过程与非绝热过程之间的补偿程度以及哪种过程主导温度变率均依赖于时间尺度，这凸显了混合层变性与海洋内部热输运在不同时间尺度上的相互作用。

11. GRL — Using Rapid Temperature Falls to Estimate Future Strong Cold Front Frequency in CMIP6 Climate Projections

Abstract

Abstract We use day‐to‐day falls in daily‐maximum surface air temperature to assess future changes in the frequency of strong cold fronts in a set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project climate models under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario. We find a general decrease in cold front frequency across the Northern Hemisphere, particularly over the oceans, and in the Southern Hemisphere a poleward shift in the region of highest frontal frequency, with increased frequency over midlatitude land regions. The frequency of strong temperature falls correlates positively with the meridional temperature gradient and transient eddy kinetic energy, implicating large‐scale baroclinicity and changes in the storm track influence the pattern of strong cold fronts. Over Southern Hemisphere land areas, this relationship weakens, suggesting the influence of regional thermodynamic processes.

中文摘要

我们利用逐日最高地表气温的日间下降来评估在一组耦合模式比较计划气候模式中，SSP5-8.5情景下强冷锋频率的未来变化。我们发现，北半球冷锋频率总体减少，尤其是在海洋上空；而在南半球，最高锋面频率区域向极地移动，同时中纬度陆地区域频率增加。强温度下降的频率与经向温度梯度和瞬态涡动能呈正相关，表明大尺度斜压性和风暴轴变化影响了强冷锋的分布型。在南半球陆地区域，这种关系减弱，表明区域热力学过程的影响。

12. GRL — Achieve Medium‐Range SST Forecast by Rolling 1‐Day Deep Learning

Abstract

Abstract Deep learning has revolutionized short‐term Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasting, but often struggles with cumulative error propagation and operational complexity in medium‐range predictions. To achieve lightweight and temporally continuous SST forecast, this study introduces two novel training strategies, Rolling Training and Multistep Training, to optimize autoregressive forecasting within an Earthformer neural network. By enforcing a consistent 1‐day rolling inference process, our framework eliminates temporal discontinuities and forecast ambiguity inherent in traditional Sequence‐to‐Sequence (Seq2Seq) models. We validate this optimized model, named Multi‐Earthformer, using OISST data and verify its robustness against independent in situ Argo observations. Results demonstrate that Multi‐Earthformer significantly enhances predictive skill beyond 15‐day lead times, suppressing seasonal systematic biases and maintaining stable, quasi‐linear error growth. Our approach offers a lightweight, physically intuitive paradigm that bridges the gap between daily synoptic variability and subseasonal‐to‐seasonal evolution, providing a scalable solution for reliable marine forecasting without the computational burden of traditional multi‐model ensembles.

中文摘要

深度学习已彻底变革了短期海表温度（SST）预报，但在中期预报中往往难以应对累积误差传播和业务化复杂性。为实现轻量化且时间连续的SST预报，本研究引入两种新颖的训练策略——滚动训练和多步训练，以优化Earthformer神经网络中的自回归预报。通过强制执行一致的1天滚动推理过程，我们的框架消除了传统序列到序列（Seq2Seq）模型中固有的时间不连续性和预报模糊性。我们利用OISST数据验证了这一优化模型（命名为Multi-Earthformer），并借助独立的Argo现场观测验证了其鲁棒性。结果表明，Multi-Earthformer在超过15天预报时效后显著提升了预报技巧，抑制了季节性系统偏差，并维持了稳定的准线性误差增长。我们的方法提供了一种轻量化、物理直观的范式，弥合了逐日天气尺度变率与次季节到季节演变之间的差距，为可靠的海洋预报提供了一种可扩展的解决方案，且无需传统多模式集合的计算负担。

13. GRL — A Satellite‐Based Estimate of the Contribution of Filamentary Structures to Lateral Carbon Transport in the Pacific and Atlantic Upwelling Systems

  • 作者：Federica Benassi, Samantha Siedlecki, Nadia Pinardi, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Paola Cessi, Silvia Bianconcini, Iván Federico
  • 发表日期：2026-09-12
  • DOI：https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl122097

Abstract

Abstract Cross‐shelf interactions and the associated lateral transport of organic carbon remain poorly quantified and constrained by observations, despite their importance for the ocean carbon cycle. Filaments generated by instabilities of coastal currents are one pathway for this exchange, but their transport is difficult to observe at basin scales. Here, we provide the first satellite‐based estimate of offshore organic carbon transport and filament contribution in Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems. Using a 21‐year (2003–2023) data set of chlorophyll‐a and sea surface temperature, we apply unsupervised k‐means clustering to detect offshore‐directed filaments and estimate their carbon content across isobaths of 250–2,000 m. We find an offshore transport of 239 ± 25 to 272 ± 28 TgC yr −1 , with filaments contributing 8 ± 2 to 10 ± 3 TgC yr −1 (<5%). Filament transport shows a seasonal cycle linked to shelf carbon stock and mesoscale/submesoscale activity. Our results provide a scalable observational framework for monitoring lateral carbon transport.

中文摘要

摘要　尽管跨陆架相互作用及其相关的有机碳侧向输运对海洋碳循环具有重要意义，但其量化程度仍然不足，且受观测约束有限。沿岸流不稳定产生的丝状结构是这种交换的一条途径，但在海盆尺度上其输运难以观测。本文提供了东部边界上升流系统中离岸有机碳输运及丝状结构贡献的首次基于卫星的估算。利用21年（2003—2023年）的叶绿素-a和海表温度数据集，我们应用无监督k均值聚类来检测离岸方向的丝状结构，并估算其在250—2,000 m等深线范围内的碳含量。我们发现离岸输运量为239 ± 25至272 ± 28 TgC yr⁻¹，其中丝状结构贡献8 ± 2至10 ± 3 TgC yr⁻¹（<5%）。丝状结构输运呈现与陆架碳储量和中尺度/亚中尺度活动相关的季节循环。我们的结果为监测侧向碳输运提供了一个可扩展的观测框架。

14. JC — Direct Radiative Impacts of Stratospheric Aerosols on the Tropical Troposphere: Clouds, Precipitation, and Circulation in Convection-Resolving and Global Simulations

Abstract

Abstract A concern for stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is that stratospheric aerosols could inadvertently alter rain and winds through mechanisms independent of the intended surface cooling. Here, we investigate how the tropical troposphere responds to SAI in models of different complexity, including convection-resolving mock-Walker and small-domain simulations as well as a global climate model, with sea surface temperature held fixed. Across models, we trace the mechanisms driving tropospheric impacts and identify modeling limitations that hinder accurate risk evaluation. SAI enhances downward longwave radiation from the warmed, aerosol-rich stratosphere, generating upper-tropospheric radiative heating that reduces cloudiness and suppresses convection, reducing precipitation. While our best estimate is a ∼2% tropical-mean precipitation reduction under strong SAI at fixed sea surface temperature, this is counteracted by cloud radiative responses that hinder predictability. Further, sensitivity experiments suggest that the precipitation response may hinge on how SAI is enacted, with higher and smaller particles both tending to weaken the precipitation response, in partial agreement with prior findings. Our convection-resolving simulations do not show that surface-temperature-independent effects of stratospheric aerosols inherently weaken the tropical overturning circulation, as previously suggested. While regional precipitation responses within the tropics could be substantial, our simulations suggest potential for lower risks than analogous volcanic events by releasing aerosols gradually, thereby mitigating land–sea circulation responses. These results clarify the mechanisms governing SAI hydroclimate impacts and reveal limitations affecting simulated outcomes from contemporary models. Consequently, near-term SAI deployment would carry the risk of being implemented without the ability to reliably predict its hydroclimate impacts. Significance Statement Stratospheric aerosol injection could help stabilize Earth’s temperature, but models have struggled to reliably predict its unintended climate impacts. This study uses a multimodel framework, including a novel application of convection-resolving simulations, to examine responses of clouds and rainfall to stratospheric aerosol injection in depth. Our findings clarify the mechanisms governing stratospheric aerosol impacts on tropical precipitation that operate independently of the intended surface cooling. Especially highlighted is how cloud radiative responses drive intermodel differences and reduce confidence in projections. Contrary to previous suggestions, our simulations lack a robust indication of weakened tropical circulation via surface-temperature-independent processes. These findings offer key insights for efforts to predict the hydroclimate risks associated with deliberate solar radiation management.

中文摘要

摘要 对平流层气溶胶注入（SAI）的一项担忧是，平流层气溶胶可能通过独立于预期地表冷却的机制，无意中改变降雨和风。本文研究了不同复杂度的模式中热带对流层对SAI的响应，包括对流解析的mock-Walker和小区域模拟以及全球气候模式，并保持海表温度固定。在各类模式中，我们追踪了驱动对流层影响的机制，并识别了阻碍准确风险评估的模拟局限性。SAI增强了来自增暖且富含气溶胶的平流层的向下长波辐射，产生对流层上层辐射加热，减少云量并抑制对流，从而减少降水。虽然我们在固定海表温度下强SAI情形中的最佳估计是热带平均降水减少约2%，但云辐射响应抵消了这一效应，从而阻碍了可预测性。此外，敏感性试验表明，降水响应可能取决于SAI的实施方式，更高的注入高度和更小的粒子均倾向于减弱降水响应，这与先前发现部分一致。我们的对流解析模拟并未表明平流层气溶胶独立于地表温度的影响会如先前所建议的那样本质上削弱热带翻转环流。虽然热带内部的区域降水响应可能相当显著，但我们的模拟表明，通过逐步释放气溶胶，从而缓解陆海环流响应，其风险可能低于类似的火山事件。这些结果阐明了控制SAI水文气候影响的机制，并揭示了影响当代模式模拟结果的局限性。因此，近期部署SAI将面临在无法可靠预测其水文气候影响的情况下加以实施的风险。意义声明 平流层气溶胶注入可能有助于稳定地球温度，但模式一直难以可靠预测其非预期气候影响。本研究采用多模式框架，包括对流解析模拟的一种新颖应用，深入考察云和降雨对平流层气溶胶注入的响应。我们的发现阐明了平流层气溶胶在独立于预期地表冷却的情况下影响热带降水的机制。尤其突出的是云辐射响应如何驱动模式间差异并降低预估可信度。与先前的建议相反，我们的模拟缺乏通过独立于地表温度的过程削弱热带环流的稳健迹象。这些发现为预测与有意太阳辐射管理相关的水文气候风险提供了关键见解。

15. JC — Assessing Ocean Forcing on Sea Surface Temperature Variability from Surface Heat Budget

Abstract

Abstract This paper compares three methods for quantifying stochastic ocean forcing to low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variability from the surface heat budget in the framework of a simple stochastic climate model, especially in the case of red noise ocean forcing. The three methods are PT21 (Patrizio and Thompson), PT22 (Patrizio and Thompson), and LGD23 (Liu et al.). PT21 estimates the ratio of ocean over atmosphere forcing as the ratio of the covariance of SST tendency with ocean heat transport over the covariance with surface heat flux, while PT22 and LGD23 first derive the time series of oceanic and atmospheric forcing before estimating their ratio. The three methods are first applied to synthetic data of the stochastic climate model and then to the midlatitude North Atlantic in observations. It is found that the LGD23 method provides an unbiased estimation of oceanic forcing with a modest sampling error at low frequency, if the persistence time of the sea surface salinity can be treated as a good approximation of that of SST associated with ocean heat transport. The PT22 method has the smallest sampling error but tends to underestimate the ocean forcing modestly when the ocean forcing is a red noise process. The PT21 method gives the correct ratio of oceanic over atmospheric forcing in spectral density in theory but suffers from a very large sampling error for practical application to a dataset of a finite length of decades. We recommend the use of both LGD23 and PT22 as two complimentary methods for the estimation of ocean forcing, with the PT22 providing likely a lower bound for red noise ocean forcing. Significance Statement This paper compares three methods for estimating ocean forcing from the surface heat budget systematically and, therefore, provides a guideline for estimating ocean forcing in observations and climate models.

中文摘要

摘要 本文在简单随机气候模型框架下，比较了三种从表面热收支中量化随机海洋强迫对低频海表温度（SST）变率贡献的方法，尤其针对红噪声海洋强迫的情形。这三种方法分别为PT21（Patrizio and Thompson）、PT22（Patrizio and Thompson）和LGD23（Liu et al.）。PT21通过SST倾向与海洋热输运的协方差同其与表面热通量的协方差之比来估计海洋强迫与大气强迫的比率，而PT22和LGD23则先推导出海洋强迫和大气强迫的时间序列，再估计其比率。这三种方法首先应用于随机气候模型的合成数据，然后应用于观测中的中纬度北大西洋。研究发现，如果将海表盐度的持续时间为视为与海洋热输运相关的SST持续时间的良好近似，则LGD23方法能够提供海洋强迫的无偏估计，且在低频处具有适度的采样误差。PT22方法的采样误差最小，但当海洋强迫为红噪声过程时，倾向于适度低估海洋强迫。PT21方法在理论上能够给出谱密度中海洋强迫与大气强迫的正确比率，但在应用于有限数十年长度的数据集时，面临极大的采样误差。我们建议同时使用LGD23和PT22作为两种互补的海洋强迫估计方法，其中PT22可能为红噪声海洋强迫提供一个下界。意义声明 本文系统地比较了三种从表面热收支中估计海洋强迫的方法，从而为在观测和气候模型中估计海洋强迫提供了指导。

16. JC — Top-of-Atmosphere Radiation over the Last Millennium Reconstructed from Proxies

Abstract

Abstract Earth’s energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is a key climate system metric, but its natural variability is poorly constrained by the short observational record and large uncertainty in coupled climate models. While existing ocean heat content reconstructions offer a longer perspective, they cannot separate the contributions of shortwave and longwave radiation, obscuring the underlying processes. We extend the energy-budget record into the preindustrial period by reconstructing the top-of-atmosphere radiation and related surface variables over the last millennium (850–2000 CE) using data assimilation, combining proxy data and dynamics from a coupled climate emulator. Validation reveals skill in the reconstructed radiation fields, especially in the global mean and the tropics. We find that the well-documented last-millennium cooling trend coincides with persistent energy loss, largest early in the millennium, and a reduction in upper-ocean heat content. The cooling trend differs by season and latitude, and is associated with anomalies in outgoing longwave radiation suggestive of an eastward shift in Indo-Pacific convection. Following large volcanic eruptions, ocean heat content anomalies persist for 10–20 years on average, supporting previous evidence that multidecadal cooling is forced by decadally paced eruptions. The reconstruction also reveals that the current rate of energy gain is unprecedented relative to the period before 1850. Significance Statement We use tree rings, corals, and ice cores to create the first reconstruction of energy entering and leaving the Earth system over the last 1000 years. Such a reconstruction of natural variability in Earth’s energy budget provides context for recent climate change. We find that the rate of energy gain associated with current global warming is unprecedented in the last millennium. Further, we find persistent heat loss associated with a global preindustrial cooling trend, and evidence that multidecadal cooling was forced by clusters of volcanic eruptions.

中文摘要

地球大气顶能量收支失衡是气候系统的一个关键指标，但其自然变率受限于较短的观测记录以及耦合气候模式中的巨大不确定性，目前约束不足。尽管现有的海洋热含量重建提供了更长时间尺度的视角，但它们无法分离短波和长波辐射的贡献，从而掩盖了潜在的过程。我们通过数据同化方法，结合代用资料和耦合气候模拟器的动力学约束，重建了过去千年（公元850–2000年）的大气顶辐射及相关地表变量，从而将能量收支记录延伸至前工业时期。验证结果表明，重建的辐射场具有技巧，尤其是在全球平均和热带地区。我们发现，有充分记录的中世纪暖期后的千年冷却趋势与持续的能量损失同时发生，能量损失在千年早期最大，并伴随上层海洋热含量的减少。该冷却趋势随季节和纬度而异，并与出射长波辐射异常相关，暗示印度-太平洋对流东移。在大型火山喷发之后，海洋热含量异常平均持续10–20年，这支持了此前的证据，即多年代际冷却由十年间隔的火山喷发群强迫。重建还揭示，当前的能量增益速率相对于1850年之前是前所未有的。

意义声明：我们利用树轮、珊瑚和冰芯，首次重建了过去1000年进入和离开地球系统的能量。这种地球能量收支自然变率的重建为近期气候变化提供了背景。我们发现，当前全球变暖相关的能量增益速率在过去千年中是前所未有的。此外，我们发现与全球前工业冷却趋势相关的持续热量损失，以及多年代际冷却由火山喷发群强迫的证据。

17. JC — Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves over the Congo Basin: Modulation by Land Characteristics

Abstract

Abstract Convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) are a prominent mode of tropical variability that organize convection and modulate rainfall, providing an important source of synoptic-to-subseasonal predictability. Most current understanding of CCKW structure and evolution is derived from oceanic environments, where surface conditions are relatively uniform and wave–convection coupling is coherent. Over the land, however, strong diurnal variability, heterogeneous surface properties, and complex terrain introduce additional processes that can substantially modify this coupling. Using reanalysis and satellite observations, we show that CCKWs over the Congo Basin depart from the canonical-ocean-based framework. The typical shallow–congestus–deep convective transition is weak, with limited shallow cloud development ahead of the active phase, particularly during daytime. Surface latent heat flux anomalies occur in phase with enhanced incoming solar radiation, indicating a thermodynamically driven response rather than the wind-stress-dominated mechanism common over oceans. During the suppressed phase, reduced cloud cover allows increased solar radiation to warm the surface, strengthening latent heat fluxes and promoting boundary layer growth and moistening. These processes progressively erode convective inhibition from below, while free-tropospheric adjustment becomes dominant only near the convective peak, implying a distinct pathway of convective preconditioning over the land. Topography and diurnally forced circulations further modulate wave evolution by locally triggering convection ahead of the large-scale active phase, partially offsetting wave-scale inhibition and advancing convective maxima. This work demonstrates that land–atmosphere interactions substantially reshape CCKW structure and convection over central Africa, highlighting the limitations of ocean-based Kelvin wave frameworks for continental environments. Significance Statement Convectively coupled Kelvin waves are large-scale weather systems that help organize tropical rainfall and affect weather patterns from daily to weekly time scales. Most of what we know about these waves comes from studies over the ocean. Here, we examine how they behave over the Congo Basin in central Africa. We find that conditions over the land, such as strong daytime heating, changes in surface moisture, and complex terrain, alter how these waves interact with clouds and rainfall. This study shows that Kelvin waves do not behave the same way over the land as they do over the ocean, emphasizing the need to better understand land–atmosphere processes to improve rainfall prediction in tropical Africa.

中文摘要

摘要 对流耦合开尔文波（CCKWs）是热带变率的一种显著模态，其组织对流并调制降水，为天气尺度至次季节尺度的可预报性提供了重要来源。目前对CCKW结构与演变的大部分认识源自海洋环境，在那里海表条件相对均匀，波-对流耦合具有一致性。然而在陆地上，强烈的日变化、非均匀的下垫面属性和复杂地形引入了额外的过程，可显著改变这种耦合。利用再分析资料和卫星观测，我们表明刚果盆地上空的CCKWs偏离了基于海洋的经典框架。典型的浅积云—浓积云—深对流的过渡较弱，活跃位相前方的浅云发展有限，尤其是在白天。表面潜热通量异常与增强的入射太阳辐射同相出现，表明这是一种热力学驱动的响应，而非海洋上常见的以风应力为主导的机制。在抑制位相期间，云量减少使得太阳辐射增加并加热地表，增强潜热通量并促进边界层增长和增湿。这些过程从底层逐步侵蚀对流抑制，而自由对流层调整仅在对流峰值附近才占主导，意味着陆地上存在一条独特的对流预条件化路径。地形和日强迫环流通过在大尺度活跃位相前方局地触发对流，进一步调制波的演变，部分抵消了波尺度抑制并提前了对流最大值。本研究表明，陆-气相互作用显著重塑了中部非洲上空的CCKW结构和对流，凸显了基于海洋的开尔文波框架在陆地环境中的局限性。意义声明 对流耦合开尔文波是帮助组织热带降水并影响从逐日到逐周时间尺度天气格局的大尺度天气系统。我们对这些波的了解大多来自海洋上的研究。在此，我们考察了它们在中部非洲刚果盆地上空的行为。我们发现，陆地上的条件，如强烈的白天加热、地表湿度的变化以及复杂地形，改变了这些波与云和降水相互作用的方式。本研究表明，开尔文波在陆地上的行为与在海洋上并不相同，强调了需要更好地理解陆-气过程以改进热带非洲的降水预测。

18. JC — IOD-Induced Gill-Pattern Winds Determine the Interannual Variability of Southwest Monsoon Current Axis in the Southern Bay of Bengal

Abstract

Abstract The Southwest Monsoon Current (SMC) flowing from the Arabian Sea (AS) into the Bay of Bengal (BoB), driven by the summer monsoon, can significantly affect the thermohaline structure of the BoB and further influence summer monsoon variability through air–sea interaction. The SMC exhibited significant interannual variability, especially in its axis position during 1993–2022. Analysis reveals that the interannual variability of the SMC axis position is mainly related to the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and its induced Ekman effect, which is forced by local wind stress curl (WSC) in the southern BoB. A positive IOD triggers a Gill-pattern response in the eastern Indian Ocean, as well as an anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the BoB and an easterly wind anomaly across the equatorial Indian Ocean from June to September. The SMC axis migrates northward when there is a negative local WSC in the southern BoB during positive IOD, which leads to positive sea surface height anomalies (SSHA), and hence, the maximum meridional SSHA gradient shifts northward. The converse conditions apply during negative IOD. The influence of the equatorial wind anomaly on the SMC axis is weaker than the Ekman effects of the local wind anomaly in the southern BoB but opposite in direction. The counteraction between the eastern-boundary-reflected Rossby waves and the local negative and positive wind stress curl forcing induced by the positive and negative IOD events are quantitatively confirmed by analyzing vorticity balance and wind forcing over southern BoB using the vorticity budget and the 1.5-layer reduced-gravity model. Significance Statement Circulation anomalies in the Bay of Bengal, a critical region in the Asian monsoon system, redistribute temperature and salinity, potentially influencing monsoon evolution. This study investigates the response of the Southwest Monsoon Current to the Indian Ocean dipole, with a focus on the underlying wind-driven mechanisms. In the southern Bay of Bengal, sea surface height anomalies induced by the local wind stress curl surpass those forced remotely by equatorial wind-generated oceanic waves, leading to the migration of the southwestern monsoon current axis. These findings provide a refined mechanistic perspective on a key oceanic pathway linking Indian Ocean climate mode to the Asian monsoon.

中文摘要

摘要 由夏季季风驱动的西南季风洋流（SMC）从阿拉伯海（AS）流入孟加拉湾（BoB），可显著影响孟加拉湾的热盐结构，并通过海气相互作用进一步影响夏季季风变率。1993—2022年期间，SMC表现出显著的年际变率，尤其体现在其轴线位置上。分析表明，SMC轴线位置的年际变率主要与印度洋偶极子（IOD）及其引发的Ekman效应有关，后者由孟加拉湾南部的局地风应力旋度（WSC）强迫。正IOD在6月至9月期间触发东印度洋的Gill型响应，以及孟加拉湾上空的异常反气旋环流和横跨赤道印度洋的东风异常。在正IOD期间，当孟加拉湾南部存在负局地WSC时，SMC轴线向北迁移，导致正海表面高度异常（SSHA），从而使最大经向SSHA梯度向北移动。负IOD期间则相反。赤道风异常对SMC轴线的影响弱于孟加拉湾南部局地风异常的Ekman效应，但方向相反。通过利用涡度收支和1.5层约化重力模式分析孟加拉湾南部的涡度平衡和风强迫，定量证实了东边界反射的Rossby波与正、负IOD事件所引发的局地负、正风应力旋度强迫之间的相互抵消作用。意义声明 孟加拉湾是亚洲季风系统的关键区域，其环流异常重新分配温度和盐度，可能影响季风演变。本研究探讨了西南季风洋流对印度洋偶极子的响应，重点关注其背后的风驱动机制。在孟加拉湾南部，局地风应力旋度引起的海表面高度异常超过了赤道风生成海洋波远程强迫的海表面高度异常，导致西南季风洋流轴线迁移。这些发现为连接印度洋气候模态与亚洲季风的关键海洋通道提供了更为精细的机制性认识。

19. Communications Earth & Environment — Indigenous Knowledge and observations improve Arctic Ocean model skill and relevance

  • 作者：Claudine Hauri, Donna D. W. Hauser, Billy Adams, Victoria Q. Buschman, Roberta T. Glenn, Krista Heeringa, Brita Irving, Joseph M. Leavitt, Rémi Pagès, Robert Schaeffer
  • 发表日期：2026-09-18
  • DOI：https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03899-w

Abstract

Communications Earth & Environment, Published online: 18 September 2026; doi:10.1038/s43247-026-03899-w Combining Indigenous Knowledge with Arctic Ocean modeling can strengthen climate science while supporting community needs, creating ongoing, two-way partnerships.

中文摘要

《Communications Earth & Environment》，在线发表：2026年9月18日；doi:10.1038/s43247-026-03899-w 将原住民知识与北冰洋建模相结合，既能增强气候科学，又能支持社区需求，从而建立持续的双向伙伴关系。

20. JC — Impact of Quasi-Periodicity on the Characterization of Auto-Correlation Structures in Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies across the Tropical Pacific

Abstract

Abstract Studies report conflicting structures of auto-correlation in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) across the tropical Pacific: some suggest a uniform structure over timescales from 10 months to 20 years, while others, using detrended fluctuation analysis, report distinct structures before and after about 4.3 years, forming piecewise structures of auto-correlation. These piecewise structures of auto-correlation may arise from (1) distinct stochastic processes at different timescale ranges, (2) untested implicit assumptions, or (3) interference from periodic components and external trends. However, our analysis indicates these factors cannot account for the piecewise structures. Meanwhile, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation imprints strong quasi-periodic components on SSTAs, and their impact on the structures of auto-correlation has not been considered in previous studies. We investigate the impact of quasi-periodic components on the structures of auto-correlation in SSTAs: decomposition indicates the piecewise structures stem from quasi-periodic components, and a single stochastic process explains the structures of auto-correlation over the entire timescale range after their removal; reconstruction reveals that quasi-periodicity creates the break and two regimes of auto-correlation in SSTAs. Spatial cluster analysis further supports that quasi-periodicity causes the piecewise structures, with most affected regions in the central–eastern equatorial Pacific, the core region of El Niño. Overall, these findings indicate that quasi-periodicity biases the characterization of the structures of auto-correlation in SSTAs. Accounting for this bias clarifies the interpretation of underlying stochastic fluctuations, providing a more robust foundation for understanding persistence and assessing climate predictability.

中文摘要

摘要：已有研究报道了热带太平洋海表温度异常（SSTAs）自相关结构的相互矛盾结果：一些研究认为在10个月至20年的时间尺度上存在均匀结构，而另一些研究采用去趋势涨落分析，报道了约4.3年前后存在不同的结构，形成自相关的分段结构。这些自相关的分段结构可能源于：（1）不同时间尺度范围内不同的随机过程；（2）未经检验的隐含假设；或（3）周期分量和外部趋势的干扰。然而，我们的分析表明这些因素无法解释这些分段结构。与此同时，厄尔尼诺-南方涛动在SSTAs上留下了强烈的准周期分量印记，而此前的研究尚未考虑其对自相关结构的影响。我们研究了准周期分量对SSTAs自相关结构的影响：分解结果表明分段结构源于准周期分量，在去除这些分量后，单一随机过程即可解释整个时间尺度范围内的自相关结构；重构结果揭示准周期性在SSTAs中造成了自相关的断点和两种体制。空间聚类分析进一步支持准周期性导致了分段结构，受影响最大的区域位于赤道中东太平洋，即厄尔尼诺的核心区域。总体而言，这些发现表明准周期性使SSTAs自相关结构的表征产生偏差。考虑这一偏差有助于澄清对 underlying stochastic fluctuations 的解释，为理解持续性和评估气候可预测性提供了更稳健的基础。

21. GRL — Observational Evidence for Accelerated Warming and Salinification Propagating Into the Deep Mediterranean

Abstract

Abstract Acceleration, rather than a gradual linear response, is emerging as a defining feature of ocean change in the Anthropocene. Surface‐forced warming propagates into the deep ocean over decades to centuries, but semi‐enclosed basins such as the Mediterranean Sea may respond more rapidly. Here, we analyse an in situ Mediterranean‐wide multiplatform data set spanning 1950–2025 and show that warming and salinification of the upper 1,000–2,000 m are not only continuing but accelerating, at increasing rates over the record. Acceleration rates reach up to 0.3°C decade −2 for temperature and 0.1 decade −2 for salinity. Coastal shallow basins exhibit additional acceleration in processes that precondition changes in deep basins, including warming of dense waters that cascade to the deep Mediterranean. These results indicate rapid, ongoing changes in Mediterranean water‐mass properties and position the basin as a natural laboratory for detecting and constraining accelerating ocean change.

中文摘要

摘要 加速度，而非逐渐的线性响应，正逐渐成为人类世海洋变化的一个决定性特征。表面强迫增暖在数十年至数百年尺度上向深海传播，但诸如地中海这样的半封闭海盆可能响应更为迅速。在此，我们分析了覆盖1950—2025年的地中海全域原位多平台数据集，并表明上层1 000—2 000 m的增暖和盐化不仅仍在持续，而且正在加速，其速率在记录期内不断增加。加速度最高可达温度0.3°C decade⁻²和盐度0.1 decade⁻²。沿岸浅水海盆在为深水海盆变化提供前置条件的过程中表现出额外的加速度，包括 cascading 至地中海深层的稠密水体的增暖。这些结果表明地中海的水团性质正在发生快速且持续的变化，并使该海盆成为探测和约束加速海洋变化的天然实验室。

22. Communications Earth & Environment — Coupled orbital and sea-level forcing on the Pacific Walker Circulation during the past 800 kyrs

Abstract

Communications Earth & Environment, Published online: 17 September 2026; doi:10.1038/s43247-026-04062-1 The split Pacific Walker Circulation shows periodic variation through the geological past, with El Niño Modoki patterns favored during glacial periods and La Niña Modoki patterns favored during interglacial periods after 250 ka, according to the reconstructed ENSO Modoki Index over the past 800,000 years.

中文摘要

《Communications Earth & Environment》，在线发表：2026年9月17日；doi:10.1038/s43247-026-04062-1

根据过去80万年重建的ENSO Modoki指数，分裂的太平洋沃克环流在地质历史时期表现出周期性变化，其中在冰期倾向于出现厄尔尼诺Modoki型态，而在250 ka之后的间冰期则倾向于出现拉尼娜Modoki型态。